FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are monitoring an area of low pressure that could develop just offshore of the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Its odds of developing are at 20% within the next five days, according to experts. Any development is likely to be slow.
Regardless of development, it may bring heavy rain to the Florida Panhandle across to Louisiana over the next several days.
The latest forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, released Thursday by experts at Colorado State University, called for 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, numbers which reflect an above-normal hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been above average for six consecutive years, according to Philip Klotzbach, research scientist for Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.
Colorado State researchers said the probability for at least one major hurricane to make a landfall along the U.S. east coast, including Florida, is 50%; the average over a full season in the last century is 31%.
The probability for a major hurricane to make landfall along the entire U.S. coastline is 75% (the average for the last century is 52%).
Traditionally, most hurricane activity is between mid-August and mid-October. The peak is Sept. 10, when storm-forming factors such as low wind shear and warm water temperature are at their optimal.
The 2020 season, the most active on record, had a record 30 named storms and 14 hurricanes, one off the record 15 established in 2005, while 2021, the third-most active season, had 21 named storms.
This is the first year since 2015 a named storm hasn’t formed prior to the June 1 start of hurricane season. The first tropical disturbance of the season moved over Florida’s Panhandle May 19. The first tropical wave rolled off Africa’s coast on May 8.
There have been three named storms so far this season: Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Only Colin affected the United States, bringing heavy rain as it moved along the Carolina coastlines earlier this month.
The named next storm to form in the Atlantic would be called Danielle.
