PHOENIX — Less than three days after Democrats celebrated victory in the final Senate contest of the 2022 midterms, the challenges facing the party heading into the next campaign came into sharp relief.
The decision by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona to leave the Democratic Party on Friday raised the prospect of a tumultuous — and expensive — three-way race in one of the most politically competitive states in the U.S. It set off a scramble among potential Democratic and Republican candidates to assess whether they could win their party’s nomination.
And it prompted difficult questions about whether Democrats might financially and politically support Sinema over their own nominee if she decides to seek reelection in 2024 and is seen as having the best chance of keeping the seat out of GOP hands.
Ultimately, Sinema’s move was a sobering reminder that while Democrats won an outright majority in the Senate last week, their grip on the chamber is still tenuous, giving individual members notable sway over the congressional agenda. And it foreshadowed the even more difficult climate ahead as Democrats defend seats in seven states, including Arizona, that former President Donald Trump carried at least once.
In an interview, Sinema was largely dismissive of such considerations, saying she doesn’t fit into the traditional party system. She said she won’t caucus with Republicans but declined to say whether she plans to seek a second term in the Senate. Her shift to becoming an independent, however, strongly suggests she’s at least trying to preserve the option.
“My decision is 100 percent based on what I think is right for me and for our state, and to ensure that I am able to continue delivering real results that make a difference in the lives of Arizonans,” Sinema said.
Her move completes a unique evolution that has both delighted and infuriated Democrats. She began her career two decades ago as a member of the Green Party. Running successfully for the Senate as a Democrat in 2018, she thrilled the party and cemented Arizona’s status as a onetime Republican stronghold that was becoming more competitive.
But she’s steadily grown alienated from the party and has been a barrier to some top Democratic priorities. She has appeared at points to take particular enjoyment in antagonizing the party’s progressive base, whose support will be needed to win a primary in 2024.
She now returns to the position in which she began her political career, as an outsider from both major parties.
“She had a choice: either a tough primary or a tough general, and she chose a tough general,” said Daniel Scarpinato, a Republican political consultant and former chief of staff to GOP Gov. Doug Ducey.
Sinema is taking a different route from Jeff Flake, the former Arizona Republican senator who also got crosswise with his party’s base and opted not to run rather than change his affiliation or enter a primary he would likely have lost. Sinema ultimately won Flake’s seat in 2018, but victory as an independent won’t be easy.
“It’s really hard to do, because all voters are trained at being partisan,” said Chuck Coughlin, a Phoenix-based political consultant who left the GOP after Trump took control of the party. She’ll need to convince a sizable number — perhaps a third — of the members of each party to vote for her and win the overwhelming majority of independents, he said.
The field of potential Sinema rivals began to take shape almost immediately. Both parties could face contested primaries, a dynamic that could help Sinema stay above the fray in a state where parties choose their nominees just three months before the general election.
U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, a progressive Democrat and longtime Sinema antagonist, strongly hinted that he’ll run but stopped short of announcing a bid. In an interview, he said that’s always been a decision he planned to make in 2023, but the timeline may have moved up.
“I always thought I could win,” Gallego said. “I think her potential run as an independent doesn’t change that calculus.”
Rep. Greg Stanton, a former Phoenix mayor, all but confirmed his own interest in the race when he tweeted a screenshot of a poll he’d commissioned for a primary challenge to Sinema.
Sinema’s party switch “isn’t about a post-partisan epiphany, it’s about political preservation,” he wrote.
