After a drier-than-normal start of the year, April’s snow and rain have helped boost the snowpack and push out the start of fire season, but the next two months will better predict summer conditions, according to the National Weather Service.
“What really matters for fire season is what happens with precipitation in May and June and the amount of lightning that happens during fire season. That’s really impossible to predict that far out,” said Scott Weishaar, National Weather Service meteorologist with the Portland district.
Since January, temperatures have been above average at higher elevations in Washington and Oregon and most areas have been drier than typical, according to a monthly and seasonal outlook report by the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center.
Western Washington and Oregon saw above average precipitation in April, improving the snowpack in the Pacific Northwest. However, drought is likely to persist in much of eastern Washington and most of Oregon, according to the outlook report.
Although last year was hot and included the major heat wave in late June, the fire season for southwest Washington and northwest Oregon was not as severe as previous years, Weishaar said. Temperatures hit 109 degrees during the June heat wave. Cowlitz County saw a high of 94 in July 2021, with nearly no rain, and a high of 100 in August, according to the Western Regional Climate Center.
Seven of the past 10 years were in the top 10 for acres burned in Washington and Oregon, with the highest in 2020, 1.98 million acres, according to the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center.
The risk of large, costly fires remains at a normal level in June in most of the Pacific Northwest except central Oregon, according to the outlook report. In July, that risk expands into central Washington, and southwestern Oregon.
The May through July outlook calls for average temperatures in Southwest Washington, but below average precipitation for Washington and Oregon, according to the report.
A continued wet pattern would help push out the start of fire season, Weishaar said. This year is already different than 2021, which had an extremely dry April and May, with fires burning in April, he said.
“The more rain and mountain snow we can get through May, the better,” he said.
