McManus: U.S. has big stake in how Ukraine war ends

“The Western objective must be to leave Russia profoundly weakened and militarily crippled … internally divided until the point that an aging autocrat falls from power,” Eliot A. Cohen of Johns Hopkins University, a former official in the George W. Bush administration, wrote recently.

But doves worry about threatening Putin’s survival in power to the point that he might consider using nuclear weapons. In the middle, President Joe Biden and his aides have settled on what sounds like an elegant solution: endorse whatever outcome is acceptable to Ukraine.

“Our job is to support the Ukrainians,” Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said. “They will set the military objectives. They will set the objectives at the bargaining table. … We are not going to define the outcome of this for the Ukrainians. That is up for them to define and us to support them.”

The logic is straightforward: The Ukrainians are doing the fighting and suffering horrendous civilian casualties, so they’ve earned the right to decide what kind of settlement they’re willing to accept.

In any case, deferring to the Ukrainians on terms for ending the war is more complicated than it sounds because the likely terms will require active participation by the United States and its allies.

Take Zelenskyy’s demand for security guarantees. He wants a reliable, binding pledge that if Russia invades again, the United States and its allies will step in with the kind of sanctions and military aid they are supplying now, or more.

“Whether Russia agrees to a settlement or not, Ukraine is going to need security guarantees,” Ivo H. Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, told me. “There’s already an organization that does that, and it’s called NATO. … How is NATO going to say no to membership for Ukraine after all of this has happened?”

Another thorny issue will involve U.S. economic sanctions. In any talks over ending the war, Russia is certain to demand that sanctions be lifted. U.S. officials have said that sanctions relief will be up for discussion, but only after Russian troops are out of Ukraine.

“But that was before Bucha,” Daalder said. “The atrocities have made it much more difficult to contemplate lifting any sanctions.”

If a cease-fire takes hold, the U.S. will also be expected to play a leading role in helping Ukraine rebuild its armed forces, its economy and its shattered cities.

U.S. and allied support after the war will be just as important as it is now. Putin has invaded Ukraine three times since 2014; if his current offensive falls short, he can be expected to plan a fourth. One goal for U.S. policy should be to deter him from trying again.

The most damaging outcome for Putin would be a Ukraine that can regain its independence, defend its borders and show Russians that democracy can prosper in their part of the world. For anyone seeking to settle scores, that would be the best revenge.