Saturday was a typical November day, foggy and cold. To me, it kind of felt like an early December day. Both November and December can see several days of dense fog; if it is freezing, we see lots of white frost and rime ice.
This time it was on the mild side, but it sure was damp after several inches of rain. Our streams in Clark County were high and muddy. Moulton Falls were nearly non-existent, as evidenced by the many pictures I saw on social media. Salmon Creek was high and roaring as well.
As of 5 p.m. Saturday, once again Vancouver had no measurable rainfall for the day, but precipitation was nearby. Rain today and Monday will add to the 4.63 inches that Vancouver had in the rain gauge for the month.
Tuesday and Wednesday look more dry than wet, and then most likely we go back to rain late next week into the weekend.
At last month’s annual winter-weather conference of the Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society, there were several presentations of what we may expect this coming season. Rebecca Muessle of the local office of the National Weather Service says the agency is expecting a wetter-than-average autumn and a cooler, wetter winter. The wet-fall prediction is right on, so far.
Pete Parsons, meteorologist for the Oregon Department of Forestry, forecasts November to be slightly warmer and wetter than average. December will be a little wetter than normal, with slightly cooler temperatures, he says. January foretells a cooler weather pattern, with above-average precipitation and an increased chance of an Arctic outbreak with cold temperatures. February brings drier-than-average precipitation, but temperatures remain on the cool side, Parsons says.
Charlie Phillips, meteorologist for Puget Sound Energy, gives this summary of winter weather based on a moderate La Niña lingering into next spring: He believes we’ll get an above-average snowpack in the mountains. He has moderate confidence that it will be cooler than average all winter, with increased precipitation. We will have some good drought relief, Phillips says, and it’s unlikely that we’ll get a repeat of our last record-dry spring.
Chat on Tuesday.
Patrick Timm is a local weather specialist. His column appears Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. ptimmwriter@gmail.com
