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Post Pandemic Economic Disruption: Don’t Look Away

By Tim Schauer, MacKay Sposito

Published: January 31, 2021, 5:00am

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Describing 2020 as “disruptive” is an understatement of epic proportions. Let’s put 2020 in the rear-view mirror! However, just assuming that in 2021 everything will return to normal post-pandemic is a risky, and perhaps perilous posture for any business. Realistically, 2020 likely will be a force of disruptive change in our windshield for many miles (and years) ahead.

If we want to thrive in the post-pandemic economy, we must adapt to a new normal that will be difficult to predict or plan for. There is no past road map. As we navigated the pandemic challenges, here’s what I think we have learned: We are resilient and adaptable. The ways that people, government and our businesses have pivoted are nothing short of extraordinary. Yes, these adaptations have been painful. Even unforgiving. We have been directed by some authority to change how or if we do our business. Having change forced upon us is hard—and even unfair. In business, we don’t have the option to be idealistic. Rather, we deal with the reality we face. I am hopeful you thrive in the years that follow this pandemic.

I believe three key changes could fundamentally disrupt our post-pandemic economy:

Some will work from home (WFH) permanently
Online shopping and forgoing brick-and-mortar stores permanently for some
New levels of social interactions including entertainment, hospitality, dining and travel

Before the pandemic, these factors slowly were developing disruptive societal and economic changes, but COVID-19 accelerated these waves of change in mid-March 2020—and we’ve been adapting at breakneck speed ever since. Slow change can be uncomfortable, but rapid change as we’ve experienced for nearly a year can be excruciating.

I offer that these changes could upend the historically reliable foundations of our society—including how we spend our time and money. If even a portion of our workforce can work from home successfully, they no longer need to live as close to their jobs. Going forward, many can choose where they live, which will influence where they build their lives (not their careers) and how and where they spend their money. For instance, post-pandemic, many consumers may forgo resuming returning to shopping inside grocery stores because they’ve discovered the convenience of curbside pickup or home delivery.

In the past, transportation and therefore geography, has been a determining factor in what jobs people take and where they live. With a portion of people working from home permanently, traffic will have a smaller influence on their lives. Building and maintaining roads to manage traffic could no longer be our most significant infrastructure concern. People who choose to continue working from home and going to school remotely could drive some very attractive outcomes: Less time in a car, less reliance on a car, lower expenses, reduced fossil fuel consumption and increased free time. All these disruptions will change our economy. Change can be opportunity if you acknowledge it.

Expanding robust broadband access to every corner of our communities will be the foundational infrastructure of post-pandemic economic development. During the shutdown, the internet has been a lifeline connecting us remotely to our work, school and families. Moving forward, access to high-speed internet and cellular service will become the single most essential utility. The government’s role in broadband business also is likely to evolve as we embrace this fact: An equal opportunity education is grounded in equal access to the internet. Land development in Washington is governed by the Growth Management Act (GMA), which requires governments to plan for adequate infrastructure for developing areas. Moving forward, broadband internet access will be another essential, along with sewer, water, stormwater and roads.

Social activities also will manifest differently in the post-pandemic economy. As we know, working from home these many months has been isolating. Most of us miss gathering with friends and family at a restaurant, brewery, concert, movie or ballgame. Aren’t we all planning the first vacation we’ll take when it’s safe to travel again? We are anticipating returning to our pre-pandemic social interactions. Sadly, entertainment, hospitality and travel have been pounded during the pandemic. Likely we will find fewer surviving places to enjoy ourselves as these businesses try to rebuild. Initially, increased demand and reduced capacity likely will drive prices up. However, once we have passed the recovery phase, those who work from home will experience increased free time and reduced expenses. I believe those who can work from home in the future will spend more time and money socially than they did pre-pandemic. They will need it and they will be able to afford it.

Even during this challenging global pandemic, I remain an optimist. Yes, I believe we can adapt and thrive in our past-pandemic lives. But I’m also enough of a realist to know the disruption is not going away. We must take a hard look at how our businesses can adapt successfully for our customers and our employees as we all continue to pivot and adapt in the new economy.

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