The following is presented as part of The Columbian’s Opinion content, which offers a point of view in order to provoke thought and debate of civic issues. Opinions represent the viewpoint of the author. Unsigned editorials represent the consensus opinion of The Columbian’s editorial board, which operates independently of the news department.
While President Joe Biden seeks congressional Republican support for a bipartisan legislative approach, GOP House and Senate members are still preoccupied with a partisan problem: Donald Trump’s lingering influence.
The former president may be ensconced at his Mar-a-Lago estate and out of the public spotlight. But his continuing hold on the GOP base is evident as Senate Republicans confront Trump’s second impeachment and their House counterparts weigh the future of their No. 3 leader, Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming.
That certainly was the initial signal in the Senate last week as only five Republicans joined all 50 Democrats in blocking a move by Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who contended an impeachment trial of a former president is unconstitutional.
All five — Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Ben Sasse of Nebraska and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania – have criticized Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 insurrection that overran the Capitol as lawmakers were counting the electoral votes confirming he lost the 2020 election to Biden.
A week after that unprecedented assault — and a week before Trump left office — the House approved a single impeachment count charging him with “incitement of insurrection” and contending he provoked the demonstrations.
Some GOP senators indicated last Tuesday that, despite voting against a trial, their minds are still open on the merits. “I know there are constitutional scholars who have strong views on both sides of this,” said Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, who Monday announced he won’t seek reelection next year. “I think our job is to sit down and hear the arguments, and that’s what I plan to do.”
Still, the vote suggested most Republicans have little interest now in provoking the former president, who has threatened to campaign in 2022 and 2024 against Republicans who oppose him.
The vote means the Senate will proceed to hold its second impeachment trial of Trump in a year. And it came despite reports that some Republicans, including Sen. Mitch McConnell, the GOP leader, believe the former president committed impeachable acts and it might benefit the party’s long-term interests to repudiate him now. McConnell, asked Wednesday if his vote for Paul’s motion meant he opposed convicting Trump, told CNN, “Well, the trial hasn’t started yet. And I intend to participate in that and listen to the evidence.”
Tuesday’s vote indicated it is extremely unlikely that 17 Republicans will ultimately vote to convict him, the number needed to reach the necessary two-thirds if all 50 Democrats vote to convict. Last year, Romney was the only Republican voting to convict Trump.
The former president has already targeted Murkowski and Sen. John Thune of South Dakota as potential 2022 GOP primary targets for failing to back his false claims he won the 2020 election. But Murkowski may seek reelection as an independent — she won a three-way race once before — and Trump’s designated primary foe for Thune, Gov. Kristi Noem, said she won’t oppose him.
On the surface, Trump’s hard core of Senate defenders would seem relatively small. Only eight of the 50 GOP senators voted to reject the electoral votes of either Arizona or Pennsylvania, while a substantial majority opposed both efforts. But most opted Tuesday for the constitutional argument, despite reports that many privately would like Trump gone permanently.
The former president’s support is more clear-cut in the House, which explains why Cheney is in danger of losing her post chairing the GOP Conference for voting to impeach Trump.
A majority of House Republicans — 139 of its 211 current members — backed one or both electoral vote challenges, including Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California and Minority Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana. Cheney was one of only 10 Republicans voting to impeach Trump.
Top Trump allies like Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan are campaigning to remove her from the leadership. At least one pro-Trump House Republican, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, is reportedly soliciting support to replace her.
And in Wyoming, two Republicans said they are considering primary challenges to Cheney. Most of the other nine face either the threat of primary challenges or diminished financial support from Republican donors.
Post-Jan. 6 polls showed Trump retaining strong support from Republicans; four in five approved his job performance, compared with fewer than two of five Americans as a whole. But even among Republicans, there was a drop in those naming him their first choice for 2024.
That means an overwhelming proportion of GOP primary voters still back Trump. But it also means the broader electorate in many states is far less supportive, a potential general election problem depending on the state or district.
Trump often touts the impressive total of 74 million votes he got last November. But they were insufficient for him to win in 2020 as a heavily financed incumbent and likely wouldn’t be enough four years from now. Besides, many Republicans fear privately he’ll remain a divisive factor as long as he remains active politically, whether within the party or by following through on reported threats to form a separate Trump party.
However, even if his support wanes out of office, he would likely retain enough clout to influence GOP primaries. Acceding to that may prove to be more of a short-term benefit to individual Republicans than a long-term one for the party as a whole.
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