“Iran right now does not seem to be serious,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said.
“Iran has fast-forwarded its nuclear program … (and) backtracked on diplomatic progress,” diplomats from Britain, France and Germany said in a statement.
In undiplomatic terms, Iran shot itself in the foot: It shifted blame for any impasse from the United States to itself. In doing so, it raised a larger, more ominous question: Does Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, want an agreement at all?
A little history is in order.
Obama and the leaders of China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany negotiated the 2015 deal to prevent Iran from acquiring the ability to assemble a nuclear weapon.
Under the deal, the United States and other countries promised to lift economic sanctions in exchange for strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activities.
Iran initially complied, closing nuclear facilities and limiting uranium enrichment. But the economic benefits fell short of expectations: Western banks and businesses didn’t flood Tehran with investments.
Then, in 2018, President Donald Trump denounced the agreement as “the worst deal ever,” walked away from it, and imposed crippling economic sanctions. In 2019, Iran began enriching uranium beyond the limits.
Last week, even some Israeli officials who had applauded Trump’s hard line acknowledged it had backfired. “The main mistake was the withdrawal from the agreement,” former Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said. “It gave (Iran) an excuse to go ahead.”
Where to go from here?
One sensible approach for the U.S. and its allies would be a step-by-step process, with sanctions coming off gradually as Iran moves back toward compliance with its 2015 commitments. But Iran has rejected that.
If Iran continues to escalate uranium enrichment, the Biden administration and its allies may opt for what some diplomats call “Plan B” — new economic sanctions and tougher enforcement of existing ones.
That may look, at first glance, like a return to the strategy that failed under Trump — but it would be done in coordination with U.S. allies, more like the sanctions policy Obama pursued a decade ago.
Iran has a valid point on one count: It says it can’t be sure the next U.S. president will honor any commitments. (Trump taught that lesson.) So it will be difficult to conclude a full agreement before the 2024 election.
But a delay in timing may suit Biden, too. Republicans are likely to call any deal a sellout; the president probably doesn’t want a debate over concessions to Iran right now. And by hanging tough, the Iranians are giving Biden an opportunity to look tough in return.
A deal will be maddeningly hard to get — just as hard as it was for Obama in 2015. What makes it worth pursuing, despite the obstacles, is the alternative.
Without an agreement that constrains Iran from moving closer to a nuclear weapon, Biden or his successor may face an unpalatable choice: accept a nuclear Iran or go to war.
It’s surely worth taking more time, offering more flexibility and enduring more rounds of unproductive talks to prevent that moment from arriving.
