The following is presented as part of The Columbian’s Opinion content, which offers a point of view in order to provoke thought and debate of civic issues. Opinions represent the viewpoint of the author. Unsigned editorials represent the consensus opinion of The Columbian’s editorial board, which operates independently of the news department.
During a recent speech in New Hampshire, President Trump unveiled a new campaign line: “Whether you love me or hate me, you have got to vote for me.” Citing the strong economy, Trump told voters that if he loses, “your 401(k), everything is going to be down the tubes,” so “you have no choice!” When he finished speaking the music that came on was the Rolling Stones singing, “You can’t always get what you want. But if you try sometimes, well, you might find, you get what you need.”
In Nashua, the Biden campaign rolled out the same message about its candidate. “I know that not all of you are committed to my husband, and I respect that,” Jill Biden told Democratic voters. “Your candidate might be better on, I don’t know, health care, than Joe is. But you’ve got to look at who’s going to win this election. And maybe you have to swallow a little bit and say, ‘OK, I personally like so and so better,’ but your bottom line has to be that we have to beat Trump.”
Or another way: “Whether you love Joe or hate him, you have got to vote for him.”
Trump and Biden are both running on the same message, but with one crucial difference: Trump is directing his at independent swing voters; Biden is directing that message at his base.
The New York Times reports that, despite his commanding lead in the polls, Biden faces a problem of low enthusiasm. While Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., “have followings rooted in zealous support for their ideas,” Biden’s support is rooted in a belief that he is the candidate best positioned to beat Trump. Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University’s Polling Institute, told the paper that while spending time recently in Iowa “I did not meet one Biden voter who was in any way, shape or form excited about voting for Biden. They feel that they have to vote for Joe Biden as the centrist candidate, to keep somebody from the left who they feel is unelectable from getting the nomination.”
Lacking enthusiasm
The danger of running on electability is that all it takes is one catastrophic gaffe or debate stumble for Biden’s support to collapse. And even if Biden manages to secure the Democratic nomination, running a campaign built exclusively on ousting the sitting president, rather than enthusiasm for your own ideas, is not a winning strategy. Ask President Mitt Romney.
According to Axios, in 2016 “20 percent of Trump’s voters told exit pollsters they didn’t like him.” These reluctant Trump voters put Trump in the White House and are critical to his keeping it in 2020.
Yet, despite their exhaustion with Trump, many of these voters approve of his economic performance in office. Despite recent market turbulence, the U.S. economy remains strong. On Trump’s watch, unemployment has reached a five-decade low, and our biggest economic problem is that we have 1.6 million more job openings than we have unemployed workers to fill them.
The problem is that Trump has made no effort to win over these reluctant Trump voters again, much less expand his base by appealing to Americans who did not vote for him but are benefiting from his policies. He is betting that presidents seeking re-election in a full-employment economy don’t tend to lose.
Biden and Trump are giving voters an ultimatum rather than inspiration. They both may find that running on your unlikability is a risky strategy.
Morning Briefing Newsletter
Get a rundown of the latest local and regional news every Mon-Fri morning.
