As city leaders gaze into their metaphorical crystal balls and try to envision the future of downtown Vancouver, they must keep in mind that fate is unpredictable. Consumer tastes are constantly changing, and disruptive technology and policy decisions often are unforeseeable.
Decades ago, downtowns were hubs for big retailers such as Montgomery Ward and J.C. Penney. Then the interstate freeway system led to accessible suburbs that moved populations out of city cores and gave rise to shopping malls.
More recently, online shopping has diminished the profitability of brick-and-mortar retailers, piling onto the impact of corporate mergers facilitated by changes in antitrust policy. As Mark Muro of the Brookings Institution told Vox.com in 2017: “Virtually all cities and metropolitan areas have seen precipitous declines in the number of locally owned corporations.” That has “seriously degraded the quality and local focus of regional business leadership, philanthropy, and other resources.”
All of which was brought to mind by a recent article from Columbian business reporter Anthony Macuk. The report examined the fact that while downtown Vancouver is bustling with new restaurants, bars and coffee shops, the area has been relatively slow to add retail outlets.
According to Vancouver’s Downtown Association, the city core has seen a net gain of 44 dining and drinking establishments in the past five years. The same trend can be seen along east Mill Plain Boulevard, or along Main Street through Uptown Village north of downtown, or along 192nd Avenue, or in Hazel Dell.
In that regard, Vancouver is no different from most urban areas. As the headline on a Time magazine article in August explained, “Americans are spending an incredible amount of money at restaurants.” And research shows that Americans now spend more money at restaurants than on eating at home. So it is not surprising that Vancouver’s restaurant industry grabbed a foothold during the economic recovery of the past couple years.
The key is to support that continuing recovery and for local businesses to adjust to changing consumer tastes. If restaurants lure customers downtown — or to other commercial areas in the city — retail outlets hopefully can latch onto that increase in traffic.
Cortney Rivera, co-owner of a clothing store that recently moved from Camas to downtown Vancouver, said: “I think the downtown area, I’d say in a year we’re going to be booming. With the waterfront, it’s going to be a destination for people to explore.”
The Waterfront Vancouver development will alter the dynamics of the city’s economy. So will future development at Terminal 1 along the Columbia River and at a long-vacant block kitty-corner from Esther Short Park. As the area continues to grow, it will be important to create a variety of dining opportunities, office space, residences and retail; as urban planners have learned over the years, a mixture of uses is essential to a healthy economy that can build on its successes and weather economic downturns.
On a broad scale, federal policy should be altered to help local businesses be more competitive against multinational conglomerates. On a local scale, city leaders should focus on making public and commercial areas as welcoming as possible — working to reduce homelessness, providing adequate parking, etc.
But beyond that, there is no telling what the future will hold for retail outlets. That future is all too often unpredictable and unforeseeable.
