The projection for Columbia River fall salmon this year is 905,800 adult coho, an increase of 619,600 fish from the 2018 forecast.
However, this first bit of good news in a while is tempered by low projections for returning Chinook that will make setting salmon seasons difficult.
The fall salmon projections were recently released ahead of what is known as the North of Falcon process, the complicated process by which ocean salmon seasons are set.
The forecasts are based on varying environmental indicators, such as ocean conditions, as well as surveys of spawning salmon, and the number of juvenile salmon migrating to marine waters.
Once the North of Falcon process is complete, these February forecasts may change slightly. Final forecasts will be available in mid-April.
This year’s forecast of about 100,500 hatchery Chinook to the lower Columbia River is down 12,000 fish from last year’s projected return. Those hatchery chinook — known as “tules,” are the backbone of the recreational ocean fishery.
A total of about 340,000 Chinook are expected to return to the Columbia this year, including about 158,000 upriver brights.
The return of lower river wild Chinook stocks improved to about 85 percent of the 10-year average, or about 13,700 adults.
Salmon fisheries in the Columbia River will likely be designed to harvest abundant coho stocks while protecting depleted chinook and “B-run” steelhead, which return to the Columbia and Snake river basins.
Washington’s ocean waters: Anglers should have more coho fishing opportunities in Washington’s ocean waters this summer compared to 2018, given higher numbers of coho projected to return to the Columbia River and to Washington’s coastal streams.
Upcoming meetings for the North of Falcon process include:
• Ocean options: State, tribal and federal fishery managers will meet March 7-12 in Vancouver, with the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) to develop options for this year’s commercial and recreational ocean chinook and coho salmon fisheries.
• Regional discussions: Additional public meetings have been scheduled into April to discuss regional fishery issues. Input from these regional discussions will be considered as the season-setting process moves into the “North of Falcon” and PFMC meetings, which will determine the final 2019 salmon seasons.
• Final PFMC: The PFMC is expected to adopt final ocean fishing seasons and harvest levels at its April 11-15 meeting in Rohnert Park, Calif. The 2018 salmon fisheries package for Washington’s inside waters is scheduled to be completed by the state and tribal co-managers during the PFMC’s April meeting.
Beginning in mid-March, fishery proposals will be posted on WDFW’s website where the public can submit comments electronically.
