WASHINGTON — Win or lose in the race for the majority, House Republicans are at risk of plunging into a messy leadership battle after the November election, with the party lacking a clear heir apparent to take the place of House Speaker Paul Ryan.
President Donald Trump has signaled he’d be happy with next-in-line Kevin McCarthy, the majority leader, a longtime ally whom the president calls “My Kevin.”
But Trump is also saying kind words about the No. 3 Republican, GOP Whip Steve Scalise, whom he calls the “legend from Louisiana.” Scalise survived life-threatening injuries after he was shot at a congressional baseball practice in 2017.
And there’s a third lawmaker in the mix: conservative Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, who is waging a longshot bid to take the gavel. Trump appeared with Jordan at an Ohio rally in the summer and beamed when the crowd started chanting, “Speaker of the House!”
“There’s going to be a contest, for sure,” said GOP Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, a veteran of leadership battles who said he’s never seen anything like the “high drama” that’s about to unfold. “Usually the election settles all the issues. This one won’t.”
Polls are seesawing in the final weeks before the election, creating suspense about whether Democrats will regain control of the House for the first time since 2010. Yet it’s almost certain that the often unruly House GOP contingent will be smaller next year. Republicans hope to hold the majority, but fully expect to lose some seats.
The election is likely to produce a more conservative, pro-Trump Republican lineup in the House, as most of the GOP incumbents at risk of losing hail from moderate-leaning districts and suburbs. Their defeat would probably concentrate more power in the hands of the House Freedom Caucus and its libertarian-leaning allies in rural, traditionally Republican states who doubt McCarthy’s conservative bona fides. Those lawmakers blocked the Californian’s rise when he first reached for the speaker’s gavel three years ago.
Conservatives say the House majority is at risk in large part because Republicans didn’t stand fully behind Trump. They fault their own side for failing to repeal Obamacare, build a wall along the border with Mexico and keep other campaign promises. If there’s a GOP wipeout on Election Day, Republicans will probably be eager to boot the current GOP leadership, which could give rise to Scalise or even Jordan’s unorthodox bid.
In public, none of the leaders-in-waiting likes to talk about the struggle to come. Their goal, they say, is to keep the House majority. But behind the scenes all three are all dialing up colleagues and racing around the country spending their time — and campaign cash — to salvage the GOP’s hold on the House.
“It’s going to be close, but I still think we keep the majority,” McCarthy told The Associated Press on Wednesday in between campaign stops.
McCarthy, who is traveling to a dozen states for two dozen lawmakers in October and shoveled $24 million in donations to candidates and campaign committees, convened a conference call, urging colleagues to put campaign money into a team effort to protect the majority.
The upbeat mood after that call Wednesday was a turnaround from the gloom of a few weeks ago when polls indicated Democrats were favored to take over the House, with even safe seats in Trump-won districts in Pennsylvania and Iowa at risk. Republicans are sensing an uptick, thanks to Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court, and a newly energized electorate awakened to the stakes of the midterm.
