Conditions in the Pacific Ocean continue to improve for salmon. The giant patch of warm, oxygen-poor water that formed off the coast, called “The Blob,” is breaking up. The warming El Nino conditions are giving way to colder La Nina conditions.
And that is where the list of good news ends.
Unfortunately, the list of bad news is long and heavy for salmon and the anglers who pursue them. The effects of The Blob and poor ocean conditions overall continue to haunt salmon and steelhead like a hangover, hindering their ability to recover.
Many of the after effects of the years of poor conditions were explained in a March 19 meeting at the headquarters of the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Region 5 in Ridgefield. Fisheries managers from Washington and Oregon gave a presentation to anglers, guides, and citizen advisors about the dismal projections for salmon returns in the coming year.
The news is bad for sockeye and coho salmon and summer steelhead, but it is worse for Chinook. Stocks of Chinook along the entire coast from California through Alaska are in trouble.
“It’s a tough year for Chinook out there,” said Bill Tweit of the director’s office of the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. “There is not a single coast run that is not in bad shape. We are going to be adopting a pretty cautious approach to setting seasons.”
Anglers will be seeing some pretty serious cuts to fishing seasons and limits, although what those changes will be has yet to be determined. Managers from the states took suggestions from the public at the March 19 meeting.
Those ideas will be modelled by fisheries staff to see how well they fit the constraints. Salmon season proposals will be offered to the public at a meeting on April 2 at the WDFW headquarters in Ridgefield.
The states will take comments on the proposals before the final decisions are made during the Pacific Fishery Management Council meetings held in Portland next month as part of the “North of Falcon” process for setting salmon seasons. Final decisions on the seasons will be made by April 11.
Poor projections
A short look at the numbers is sobering. Last year, anglers caught over 48,000 fall Chinook in all fisheries in the Columbia River. This year that catch will be reduced to about 16,000 fish.
The projections call for a total of 365,600 adult Chinook returning to the Columbia. The Upriver Bright segment is expected to be 200,100 adults. That is less than half of the recent ten-year average.
Columbia tule Chinook stocks, both wild and hatchery, are also projected to be poor. The lower river tule hatchery return, which drives the ocean Chinook season along the southern Washington coast, is forecast to be 112,500. That projection is about half of last year’s projection.
That low return, along with low returns of other stocks, will put constraints on the salmon seasons along the southern Washington coast affecting the ports of Ilwaco and Westport.
Coho populations are faring no better. An estimated 286,200 coho are projected to return to the Columbia River this year, down nearly 100,000 fish from the 2017 forecast. That low return will constrain the ocean and Columbia River coho fisheries.
Although summer steelhead returns to the Columbia are expected to be better than last year they are still low enough that anglers can expect fisheries reductions such as those imposed last year. Anglers were only allowed one hatchery steelhead a day, and some areas were closed as the bulk of the fish passed through.
Projections are for 190,350 steelhead to return to the Columbia this year, including 158,000 “A” run adults. Some 24,400 “B” run steelhead should return, including 3,400 wild adults.
The sockeye projection of 99,000 would be the lowest in many years, and could mean fisheries closures during 2018.
The projection for Summer Chinook is about 67,300 adults, which is very similar to last year’s return.
Difficult choices
Constraints on Columbia River Chinook will force some tough decisions. Anglers can expect reduced opportunities from Buoy 10 at the river’s mouth all the way up to the upper Columbia and its tributaries. There could be reduced fishing days, reduced bag limits, gear restrictions, or all of the above.
Suggestions included shortened seasons, mark-select fisheries, and reduced retention days.
There will also be economic impacts. Fishing guides, gear manufacturers, and commercial fishermen will feel the pinch but they will not be alone. Many small communities on the coast and Columbia River depend on salmon dollars.
Liz Hamilton is the executive director of the Northwest Sportfishing Industry Association, and she is concerned about the economic pain that the poor runs will cause.
“The fishing guides are at ground zero,” she said. “For a lot of people in the industry it will be the toughest year in their lifetime.”
Hamilton also looks at the big picture. The drop in salmon dollars will be felt by those in the hospitality business, owners and employees of restaurants, convenience stores, and just about everybody in many small towns.
“Salmon are to Astoria what snow is to Colorado,” added Hamilton.
According to a study commissioned by the NSIA, a single angler day of fishing means $115 to local communities. Those dollars are just for direct expenditures such as gas and food, and does not include boats, gear, etc.
Not all fishermen and guides think the news is as bad as suggested. Guide Lance Fisher of Lance Fisher Fishing is the host of the Northwest Outdoor Show, which airs on Saturday mornings on multiple radio channels. He is not as worried as some.
“We’ve seen it all before,” said Fisher. “There is still going to be some opportunity, and still going to be some decent fishing.”
The low return projections do worry him from one standpoint.
“It’s a small run,” he said. “If we get good fishing conditions we could chew through our impacts real quick.”
It is important to remember that these fisheries should recover over time, and the seasonal cutbacks will do long-term good.
“Protect the fish and protect the future,” said Hamilton. “But it’s a tough pill to swallow.”
