Local fisherman and guides are nervously eyeing the spring Chinook projection for the Cowlitz River for 2018.
Data released on Jan. 11 showed the projection of 5,150 adults, which would be about one third of last year’s actual return of 14,000 adults.
That scenario has many anglers worried that the poor return could jeopardize fishing seasons in the Cowlitz, and by extension, the main stem Columbia.
Tom Wadsworth, a district fisheries biologist for the WDFW in Region 5, said the low forecast is due to poor conditions in the ocean.
“It’s related to our ocean conditions,” said Wadsworth. “The ocean survival of juvenile and adults has not been good. There’s not enough food.”
He also said it’s important to keep things in perspective.
“This is a low return relative to the last few years,” Wadsworth said. “Back in the 90’s this was about average.”
Long-time Cowlitz fishing guide Lee Barkie of Northwest River Fishing thinks the low return is about diseases and hatchery practices, as well as reduced smolt plantings over the years.
“They used to plant 1.6 million springer smolts into the Cowlitz,” Barkie said. “Now it’s down to 600,000.”
While Wadsworth reports that releases over the years have decreased, this low return is not due to any recent reductions.
“We have not decreased release numbers,” he said.
Also, Barkie puts little faith in the forecasts.
“They are never on,” he said.
Cary Hofmann of CNH Guide service agrees. He uses the Cowlitz for guide trips often.
“They (the forecasts) can be off by quite a bit,” Hofmann said. “I think it will be above what they predicted.”
Even if the run is low he is not worried.
“A few years ago we had a depressed run, but we did all right,” he said. “It was fishing, with the fish spread through the entire river. Then one year we had a big run, and they all shot up to the Barrier Dam.”
He said that was not a fun year on the Cowlitz River.
“Just 80 boats anchored up at the Barrier Dam,” Hoffman said.
As for the concerns about fishing closures, Wadsworth reports that the main stem Columbia is unlikely to see any restriction due to the Cowlitz run.
“We have not been talking about that,” he said. “At this point we are not looking at that option.”
However, he said the hatchery on the Cowlitz needs its brood stock.
“We will do everything we can to avoid closures on Cowlitz, however, we need those fish back to the hatchery,” Wadsworth said. “We’ll have to see how the run starts to come in.”
There is hope for a rebound in 2019. Wadsworth said the potential is there, but it’s too early to say.
“It’s hard to look too far out,” he said.
Guides list
Lee Barkie of Northwest River Fishing: (360) 304-0771
Cary Hofmann of CNH Guide Service: (206) 919-1266
