State official thinks shift in population trends is on horizon
By Patty Hastings, Columbian
Social Services, Demographics, Faith
Published: January 2, 2018, 7:00pm
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Construction continues on the 134th Street Lofts in November. (Amanda Cowan/The Columbian)
Clark County’s population keeps growing — much like the state as a whole — fueled primarily by people moving into already dense urban areas.
But Yi Zhao, chief demographer at the state Office of Financial Management, thinks the trend is about to change.
“Right now, the growth is concentrated in the large metro counties,” she said.
The U.S. Census Bureau named Washington the fourth fastest-growing state in the country after Idaho, Nevada and Utah. Most of that growth is from people moving here.
Zhao thinks Washington’s growth will continue to be concentrated in its larger urban counties until 2020; after that, perhaps, people seeking more affordable housing will branch out into medium-sized or smaller rural counties. She pointed out that Snohomish and Pierce absorb people from fast-growing King County, and Clark County similarly gets people who are leaving Portland.
Zhao’s office estimates there were 471,000 people residing in Clark County in 2017. While there is no crystal ball that says exactly how many people will live here in the coming decades, the Office of Financial Management uses a variety of data, such as building permits, school enrollment, voter registration, drivers’ license data, the number of births and deaths, to compile its Growth Management Act population projections. These look at how many people could live in each county through 2040.
The office recently released these figures, which have been done every five years since 1990 and give low, medium and high population projections with medium being the most likely outcome.
If the projections are accurate, Clark County’s population will skirt just under 500,000 in 2020 and be 643,552 by 2040. If something slows growth, the population could grow to just 541,000 by 2040; high projections put the county’s population at 762,479 by 2040.
Population forecasts are always changing and the 2017 update reflects recent growth; the 2012 population projections were much lower due to the recession when people weren’t moving here. In 2007, the Office of Financial Management projected that the 2020 population would be 513,000 people. Five years later, after the economic meltdown, the office’s projections put it at 477,884.
Oliver Orjiako, director of community planning, said the county seems to have rebounded from that. It has improved economically and developers are buying up land to build housing for the people who want to live here.
“We have seen a significant number of folks moving into Clark County,” he said.
Population growth and how to manage it is an ongoing battle for Clark County with different groups arguing for or against expanding urban growth boundaries.
Numbers from the Office of Financial Management are used in the comprehensive plan. It was recently updated using the 2012 numbers, so the county has a while before the plan has to be updated again. Still, it’s up to the county council to decide, Orjiako said. It’s unclear whether that update will happen before or after the 2020 Census, which the population projections are based on.
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