Jayne: Will blue wave wash over 3rd District in November?

Those early knockouts are not solely a result of demographic changes; Herrera Beutler has been popular with constituents and deserves credit for that.

But this year’s contest promises to go the distance. Through Thursday’s count, Herrera Beutler had 42.1 percent of the vote in the primary, while Long had 35.3 percent. Notably, the three Republicans in the race combined for 51 percent, while the four Democrats pulled 49 percent.

Which begs the question: How large is the coming blue wave? Midterm elections typically favor the party that is not in power, and the fact that the party in power this year is led by an incompetent charlatan is expected to turn that wave into a tsunami. Judging by Tuesday’s primary results, six congressional districts in Washington will be easy victories for Democrats and one is safely in Republican hands. The other three — all currently held by Republicans — are in play.

That wave also could be seen in the primary results for local races. Brandon Vick, a Republican legislator from the 18th District who won with 63 percent of the vote two years ago, received 51.8 percent in a two-person primary. Kathy Gillespie, a Democrat running in that same traditionally conservative district, received 52.3 percent in a two-person race.

A losing strategy

Primaries are not the same as general elections. They are more like the four-rounder on the undercard, and the key for both parties in November will be voter turnout.

That is what makes the race between Herrera Beutler and Long so interesting. While the incumbent has easily won her past three elections and while she represents a district that favored Donald Trump by 7 percentage points in the 2016 election, Long is the kind of engaging, energetic candidate who can turn the contest into a brawl.

Herrera Beutler’s strategy, judging from Wednesday’s opening round, includes making an issue of the fact that Long moved from Oregon to the 3rd District last year. It is a fair criticism, one that voters will have to weigh for themselves.

But Herrera Beutler’s main policy issue is a losing one — if voters have been paying attention. She continues to trumpet the scam of a Republican tax cut passed last year. A reminder: The tax cut is being paid for with record levels of deficit spending, and polls show the American public disapproves of the tax cuts.

All of that will play a role between now and November. And while we will avoid making a bet on the fight at this point, we will offer one prediction — voters in the 3rd District are going to witness the kind of bout they deserve.