While President Trump’s tweets and bluster typically grab much of the public’s attention, there are some policy issues that call for scrutiny. Foremost among them — especially for Washingtonians — is the president’s approach to international trade.
Trump campaigned — and won — partly on a platform of protectionism and a promise to undo agreements that have been forged by his predecessors. And although many citizens gravitate to his mantra of “America first,” the policies he espouses should be garnering more analysis than an early-morning tweetstorm.
Washington is the nation’s most trade-dependent state, relying upon strong relationships with Canada, Mexico, China and other nations to boost our economy and provide markets for goods produced here. As the Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University has noted, exports account for 19 percent of the state’s Gross Domestic Product, while imports account for about 12 percent.
Because of that, Trump’s isolationist economic policies are particularly disconcerting.
The president has withdrawn the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an agreement forged over several years of negotiations between 12 Pacific Rim countries. Trump was not alone in his opposition to the pact; by the time of last year’s election, it appeared to have little support in Congress. But the impact of that dissent is being felt. As Rep. Derek Kilmer, D-Gig Harbor, told The Seattle Times following a trip to Japan: “There are concerns when your allies start to question whether your word is good — and that’s a problem.”
And, as former President George W. Bush said last week in a searing speech aimed at Trump without mentioning the president by name, “conflict, instability and poverty follow in the wake of protectionism.”
This state does not benefit from protectionism and chaos. It benefits from open trade and reliable relationships with business partners around the globe. Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership shrinks markets for Washington agriculture; a trade war with China would be damaging for many companies in the state, particularly Boeing; and increasing uncertainty surrounding the North American Free Trade Agreement creates instability for manufacturers across the nation.
Negotiations to renew and strengthen the NAFTA agreement with Canada and Mexico were scheduled to be finished by Oct. 17. But Trump’s diatribes about the pact and his unrealistic demands upon America’s neighbors have made discussions difficult. Meanwhile, companies and governments in those nations are seeking deals with manufacturers throughout Europe and Asia because of the instability in U.S. trade policy.
Trump’s approach to trade does not help Washington workers and it does not help the blue-collar workers who formed the foundation of his support. Last year, the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that Trump’s policies — if he enacted all of his campaign promises — would cause the U.S. economy to shed about 4 million jobs. It must be noted that the institute is a pro-trade organization, but it is difficult to argue with its conclusion that a trade war “would send the U.S. economy into a recession and cost millions of Americans their jobs.”
As President Bush explained, “Our security and prosperity are only found in wise, sustained global engagement.” Those words resonate in Washington.
