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Opinion
The following is presented as part of The Columbian’s Opinion content, which offers a point of view in order to provoke thought and debate of civic issues. Opinions represent the viewpoint of the author. Unsigned editorials represent the consensus opinion of The Columbian’s editorial board, which operates independently of the news department.
News / Business / Columnists

Will: Automakers peer into digital crystal ball

By George Will
Published: October 15, 2017, 6:01am

Bending metal, slapping on chrome and marketing an empowering product and status marker that mesmerized 20th-century America, the automobile industry typified the Old Economy, of which General Motors was emblematic. As was its bankruptcy.

Today, GM’s CEO Mary Barra is wagering that the industry soon will be manufacturing New Economy products. They will incorporate technologies that will entice buyers whose sensibilities and expectations have been shaped by the kind of empowerment delivered by their smartphones, which arrived just 10 years ago.

GM’s electric self-starter, which replaced hand cranks, was the last century’s most transformative innovation. It arrived in 1912. Today, Cadillac offers hands-free driving, with advanced GPS mapping. An eye-tracking camera on the steering column monitors driver alertness, and the car nags the distracted driver back to attentiveness, which makes this technological marvel less of a convenience than the self-starter.

Still, Barra is attempting an audacious balance between the demands of present consumers and radically different future demands. Or, more accurately, a future that governments, hostile to consumer sovereignty, intend to dictate.

China has announced, as have Britain and France, plans to ban, at an undetermined date, sales of vehicles powered by fossil fuels in their tanks. (Electric vehicles will be powered mostly by fossil-fuel-generated electricity.) In Shanghai in mid-September, Barra dissented: “I think it works best when, instead of mandating, consumers, not government dictates, should decide how cars are powered.”

But governments, and not just dictatorships, like to dictate, and companies must accommodate: GM sells more cars in China than in America (it sold about 1.2 million Buicks last year, about a million of them in China, where elites drove them decades before communism arrived), and China manufactures more cars than the United States and Japan combined.

As GM promises two new electric vehicles in the next 18 months, and a total of 20 by 2023, one of Barra’s executives speaks of GM “driving increased usage and acceptance of electric vehicles,” but governments are at the wheel. Without subventions from Washington, Tesla’s market capitalization never would have even briefly exceeded GM’s.

The future is electric

Ford, too, is anticipating a future replete with electric, semi-autonomous, driverless and shared cars: Two years ago, it announced a $4.5 billion investment in electric vehicles. But to pay for this speculation (electrics are 1 percent of U.S. car sales), Ford is diverting $7 billion from cars to vehicles for which there actually is demand — SUVs and trucks (its F-Series pickup has been America’s best-selling vehicle since 1982).

“This is a long-lead-time business,” says Barra, as she tries to peer over the horizon to develop products for a public that increasingly can work and shop without leaving home, and that decreasingly vacations. The torrid romance that was America’s car culture has cooled (the percentage of 12th-graders with a driver’s license has declined from 88 to 73 since 1978), the sedan is an endangered species, and car companies are preparing for a future in which the crucial metric is not the number of vehicles sold to consumers but the number of miles traveled by consumers.

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