Merry Christmas! As I write this column late Saturday afternoon, the weather forecast was, as usual, a tough one to call. Friday, it looked like we would have a 50-50 chance of snow here in the lowlands. Forecast models reduced that down to 20 percent Saturday morning. Reading current charts, that may have gone up just a bit.
As you know it takes just the right combination to get snow here at the city levels. And timing that on Christmas Eve or Christmas would be well, a miracle. We have the cold east winds pouring out from the Columbian River Gorge, and a weather system off to the west, southwest that will send moisture over the cold air. If it is a shallow layer, it could bring sleet or brief freezing rain. If deep with evaporative cooling as the moisture falls, then snow is likely.
At this point it could be any combination of precipitation types. If you saw the movie ‘Hunger Games,’ then you know the odds are stacked against you. I think Seattle would have a much better chance than here. However, if the storm tracks just to our south, we would get several inches snow. You will most likely know the scenario by the time you read this column.
My best thinking is we see some light snow and sleet this morning, a break during the day, then maybe some snow after dark mixed with rain, followed by rain showers. Higher elevations and in the Gorge, will keep frozen precipitation longer. I see a white Christmas in my head though.
