Oregon and Washington have released the first salmon projections for the Columbia River and its tributaries for 2018.
The numbers indicate that fish runs are still struggling from recent poor conditions in the ocean and elsewhere, but the news is not as bad as it could be and there are a few bright spots.
Upriver spring Chinook
The 166,700 adult spring Chinook that are expected to return to the upper Columbia River would be 90 percent of the 10-year average. If that many Chinook do return it would be a significant increase over the 2017 actual return of 115,821. That was well below the preseason forecast of 160,400.
Spring Chinook, sometimes called “springers” are one of the most popular fish to target in the Columbia River.
While the seasons have not been set for the main stem lower Columbia River the projection suggests a season structure similar to last year. There was a January-February open season 7 days a week below the I-5 Bridge.
The fishery was also open from the Bonneville Dam to the mouth from March 1 to April 10, 13 -17, and 20-23. There was a two fish limit that could include one Chinook.
Anglers were restricted to bank angling above Beacon Rock and there was a Chinook sanctuary below the mouth of the Lewis River.
Willamette River
A return of 53,820 adult spring Chinook are expected to return to the Willamette River in Oregon in 2018. This would be about 92 percent of the recent 10-year average. The run should include 43,060 hatchery fish.
In 2017 returns beat the forecast of 38,100 adults, and the final count was 50,774 total fish including 48,233 adults. That number also includes the 4,336 adults that returned to the Clackamas River.
The hatchery mark rate was 85 percent.
While not yet finalized the season for the fishery should be open 7 days a week with a two adult hatchery Chinook bag.
Cowlitz River
Preseason forecasts are not good for the Cowlitz River. Only 5,150 adult spring Chinook are expected to return, about the same number as were harvested last year.
Last year’s actual return was 14,000 adults. That was below the preseason forecast of 17,100.
State fisheries managers believe that the low projection could mean possible season restrictions on the Cowlitz.
Kalama River
Some 2,500 adult springers returned to the Kalama River last year, which was below the preseason forecast of 3,100. About 1,450 spring Chinook are expected.
Lewis River
The Lewis River’s hatchery spring Chinook program has struggled in recent years, but changes in the hatchery practices finally brought about a turn-around when 2,400 adult springers returned in 2017.
For years the returns have been meager, numbering only in the hundreds, forcing season closures and making it difficult for the hatchery to capture enough broodstock. Last year’s projection was for only 700 adults.
About 3,700 springers are expected to return to the Lewis River this year.
Dan Rawding, acting regional fish manager for WDFW, said changes to the program included a change in the release timing of the juvenile spring Chinook from the hatchery.
“The smolts were being released in March,” said Rawding. “They have now moved to partial releases, with some going out in October and some in the spring.”
Since the year 2000 spring Chinook returns have slid downward, but managers are confident that trend has been reversed. However, there has yet been no decision on whether to lift the sanctuary in the Columbia River below the mouth of the Lewis.
Upper Columbia Summer Chinook
The summer Chinook fishery on the Columbia River continues to grow in popularity, and anglers can expect 67,300 adult fish to return to the river this year. That is very close to the actual return in 2017 of 68,204 adults. 63,100 were predicted.
The hatchery mark rate should run in the neighborhood of 40 to 60 percent.
Sandy River
The actual return in the Sandy River in 2017 beat expectations, with 5,900 adults showing up. The preseason forecast was for 3,600.
About 4600 springers are expected to return this year.
Columbia River Sockeye
Sockeye in the Columbia continue to struggle to regain ground after the drought of 2015 devastated the run. That year 95 percent of the sockeye that crossed Bonneville Dam failed to make it to their home streams because of low, warm water in the Columbia.
The return in 2017 was the lowest since 2007, with only 88,263 sockeye entering the Columbia. That was far below the preseason forecast of 198,000.
Some 99,000 are projected to return this year, with 600 headed to the Snake River.
Upriver Summer Steelhead
Final projections have not been made for the Columbia River summer steelhead run, but fisheries managers do not believe the run will bounce back much this year. Last years return was dismal, forcing closures and limit reductions all along the Columbia River.
Final projections are expected in early 2018.
Fall Chinook
Final projections will not be available until 2018, but managers expect the run to be trending downward, with runs similar to those prior to 2013.
Coho
Coho numbers are not expected to be far above the 2017 return, which is still being counted. However, the actual return looks to be about 60 percent of the preseason forecast of 319,300 adults.
Shad
Another strong run of shad is expected following last year’s return of about 3.3 million.
Smelt
Smelt continue to struggle, with returns in 2018 expected to trend downward.
White Sturgeon
While adult and juvenile abundances have improved, and 2017 saw 5 days of sturgeon retention, fisheries managers will continue to take a cautions approach when deciding on retention seasons.
