3.2 percent increase in median hourly pay biggest jump since 1991
The Columbian
Published: August 22, 2016, 6:05am
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So listen, Clark, you’ve been working hard since the downturn, diversifying your accounts and attracting some big money. I think it’s time you got a raise — how does 3 percent sound?
For the working stiffs of Clark County, the average paycheck finally got a serious bump last year.
“That’s clearly a pretty positive story,” said regional economist Scott Bailey with the Employment Security Department. “This was the largest change in a growing economy since 1991.”
The local median wage went up 3.2 percent from 2014 to 2015, landing a few cents more than $21 an hour.
“What pushes wages up? If you’re in this workforce and you get a raise at work, or move to a another job with a better wage, or there’s new jobs coming in,” Bailey said. “Does this mean that people got raises? Not necessarily. Sometimes it’s the mix of jobs moving in and out.”
The vast majority of workers — those who earn $12 to $36 an hour — saw more jobs open up. But not everyone is winning the wage battle. Those making less than $12 an hour — at least 16 percent of the workforce — actually saw many of their jobs disappear.
“In any particular year, if you look at incumbent workers, most (wages) move up pretty modestly,” Bailey said. “A few move up quite rapidly, and some go down. It’s pretty complex. But it’s the balance, and the balance here is pretty good.”
After years of stagnation, any upward momentum on wages is a welcome change as the cost of living continues to increase.
“Clark County has done really well in its recovery. We’ve just had better job growth than the country, the state, the Portland metro overall,” Bailey said. “Our time has come.”
Where it’s happening
Nationally, wages increased about 2.3 percent between 2014 and 2015, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, putting Clark County ahead on yet another metric.
“Even a 1 percent increase is significant,” Bailey said. “Three percent is great.”
While Bailey said looking at the vast middle is a good gauge for wage growth, breaking down wages shows a pretty positive story as well.
“If we divide jobs into tenths — from the lowest-paid 10 percent (decile) of jobs to the highest-paid 10 percent of jobs — we can paint a more comprehensive picture of the labor market.”
In his data, Bailey says the wage increases per decile were “fairly uniform,” with all but one-tenth of wage earners getting at least a 2.5 percent bump.
Where the wages lagged, curiously, was the top 10 percent of earners.
“This was a bit of an aberration — the gap between the bottom decile and the top decile has widened by 20 percent since 1990,” he said.
Yet the biggest push in the average wage locally came in jobs that pay very well — jobs that pay more than $36 an hour increased by 11 percent, and those that pay more than $60 rose by 15 percent.
Many of those are new jobs coming into the community. Bailey pointed to Fisher Investments, PeaceHealth, Integra and Banfield Pet Hospital — which could drive another median wage increase when the numbers for 2016 are crunched.
“Those kind of jobs all have pretty good multiplier effects,” he said.
The biggest gains in high-wage jobs came largely from finance and insurance, health care, local government and professional and business services. There was some diversity in the high-wage growth, with wholesale and retail trade, information and construction adding hundreds of jobs.
Where it isn’t happening
That came as low-wage jobs saw a 4 percent drop between 2014 and 2015. There were 776 fewer jobs that paid less than $12 an hour, mostly cut from business services such as staffing agencies and manufacturing.
That was offset slightly by low-wage job growth in health care and accommodations and food services.
According to a graph of where new jobs are coming in, higher-wage — and likely higher-skill — jobs are growing disproportionately to jobs paying less than $24 an hour and especially between $12 and $18 an hour.
In a few years, though, there might not be a category for jobs paying less than $12 an hour.
A minimum wage increase to $13.50 over three years is up for a statewide vote on November’s ballot. What happens to jobs and above-minimum wages depends on who you ask. Business groups say it will lead to job losses and increased prices, while supporters say more money in people’s pockets means more customers and more jobs as a result.
Southwest Washington’s regional economist was coy with his prediction.
“What I can’t say is what the effects will be,” Bailey said. “Something will happen.”
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