Will they or won’t they?
For the Seattle Seahawks, the 2015-16 season comes down to that question.
When you’ve been to two straight Super Bowls, you can forget platitudes like “we’ve made progress.” There are no moral victories. The only shades of gray at CenturyLink Field will be in the late-season mist that will fall.
That’s because anything short of a berth in Super Bowl 50 is regression. All that matters is earning another shot at the Lombardi Trophy, which slipped away in that questionable play call and interception against New England.
So will they or won’t they?
On one hand, the Seahawks were one yard from becoming a mini-dynasty. They’re doing something right.
On the other hand, the offseason brought plenty of changes both on the roster and coaching staff. And cracks are beginning to show in the foundation that the past few seasons were built upon.
Today, we begin to learn the answer when Seattle opens its season at St. Louis. Here are three reasons the Seahawks will and won’t return to the Super Bowl.
• First, why they won’t:
LOB, RIP
The past three years, the Legion of Boom has been the best defensive backfield in football. More importantly, that group’s swagger and toughness spread throughout the team.
But this isn’t the same band that had all those hits.
Byron Maxwell is gone, having signed a free-agent deal with Philadelphia. His replacement Cary Williams has been underwhelming in the preseason.
The health of Earl Thomas is still in question after offseason shoulder surgery that caused him to miss the entire preseason. Richard Sherman is also coming off an elbow injury suffered in the NFL Championship.
And then there’s Kam Chancellor. No resolution is in sight to his holdout that has stretched past six weeks and will now start costing him more than $267,000 for each game missed. Forget who’s wrong or right in that contract dispute. Without Chancellor, the Seahawks defense is missing its enforcer.
O-line or oh-line?
Seattle is trying to replace two fifths of its starting offensive line. It hasn’t been easy.
The line was dreadful at the start of the preseason but made considerable progress the past two games, especially in pass protection.
Still, it’s a mystery how new starters Drew Nowak (center) and Garry Gilliam (right tackle) will fare in the regular season.
That darn salary cap
For three years, Seattle had it made. General manager John Schneider struck salary-cap gold when low-paid late-round draft picks became stars. The Seahawks had plenty of money to pursue free agents or sign their own players to extensions.
But that couldn’t last forever. Eventually Richard Sherman got paid. Now Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner have signed long-term deals.
Sure, the Seahawks might have locked up their stars on offense and defense. But they had to let go of the financial flexibility that Schneider has so masterfully used.
• Now, why the Seahawks will return to the Super Bowl:
The pass rush
While most focus on that fateful interception, one of the key plays of the Super Bowl happened in the third quarter when Cliff Avril was knocked out of the game with a concussion.
At that point, Avril and fellow defensive end Michael Bennett were causing Tom Brady fits. After Avril’s exit, Brady completed 13 of his last 15 passes to lead a fourth-quarter comeback.
But Seattle now has a fully healthy defensive line with Jordan Hill and Brandon Mebane back from injury. Along with Bruce Irvin and dynamic rookie Frank Clark, Seattle might have the best and deepest group of pass rushers in the NFC.
More offensive options
If you’re going to give Russell Wilson the keys to the franchise, there’s no sense in making him drive a lemon.
Not to worry. Seattle acquired Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham, giving Wilson an elite downfield target.
The emergence of rookie Tyler Lockett as a true speedster gives Wilson a deep threat to complement the steady presence of Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse.
The late addition of Fred Jackson in the backfield will help take the burden off Marshawn Lynch, whose 30-year-old body can only take so much more pounding.
A down NFC West
It wasn’t long ago that the NFC West was the toughest division in football.
But after losing most of its defense and its head coach, San Francisco is a bigger mess than the Levi’s Stadium turf. St. Louis remains stuck in mediocrity.
That leaves Arizona as the biggest threat to Seattle’s division title. The Cardinals have a defense that can hold its own with Seattle, especially among its linebackers and the secondary. But the offense relies entirely on whether Carson Palmer is healthy. And that’s never a sure bet.
Will they or won’t they? Ask me in January.
Micah Rice is The Columbian’s Sports Editor. Reach him at 360-735-4548, micah.rice@columbian.com or on Twitter @col_mrice.
