Sam Smith an unlikely Grammy Awards favorite

Leave it to Howard Stern to cut to the chase about Sam Smith and this year’s Grammy race.

“That’s how good that song is,” Stern said about Smith’s “I’m Not the Only One” recently on his Sirius XM show. “He’s fat and he’s gay, and little girls worship him. That’s when you know you have a good song, and you have a good voice.”

Now that may not be how Smith would describe himself, but it would be hard to argue with Stern’s point (meant as a compliment) if it were a little more tactfully expressed. The British soul singer — whose best songs are quiet affairs, where his tender, fluttering falsetto can bring his vulnerabilities to life — is an unlikely underdog turned Grammy favorite. He has managed the rare feat of being nominated in all four top categories, securing six nominations total to tie him with Beyoncé and Pharrell Williams for the lead going into tonight’s ceremonies.

Smith’s accomplishment is even more remarkable, considering this year’s crop of surprisingly pop-oriented nominations, where the Recording Academy’s push for relevance seemingly has them valuing popularity over artistry.

For decades, the Grammys generally saved some top nominations to introduce new artists to the public or highlight works of high artistic merit, generating the fabled “Grammy bounce,” as new converts rushed to support artists they saw on the show. This year, all the album of the year nominees debuted in the Top 3, including Beyoncé’s “Beyoncé” and Ed Sheeran’s “X” that reached No. 1.

The Recording Academy took an even more pop-oriented turn in the record and song of the year categories, where all the nominees were Top 10 hits. That’s a far cry from the 2012 Grammys, when Bon Iver’s “Holocene” was nominated for both record and song of the year without charting in the Billboard Hot 100.

Does the Recording Academy really believe there was no other more worthy nominee than Iggy Azalea’s popular but lightweight “Fancy”? Or is it more interested in keeping up ratings for the awards show and the interest of young music fans?

“This year’s nominees are a reflection of the music community’s diversity and range of talent, and a testament to the Academy’s voting process,” Neil Portnow, the Recording Academy’s CEO-president, said in a statement. “The tone for ‘Music’s Biggest Night’ has undoubtedly been set, and we look forward to producing one of the most exciting telecasts in Grammy history.”

There really is a world of difference between Smith and Azalea, who will duke it out for record of the year and for best new artist. Azalea is more of a traditional pop star, while the 22-year-old Smith is the kind of artist the Grammys like to champion, a young singer who embraces older musical styles.

For that reason, many think Smith has a chance at a sweep of the top four categories — which hasn’t been done since Christopher Cross did it in 1981. (Fun. was the last artist to have a shot at the honor in 2013, while Amy Winehouse also came up short in 2008.)

However, Smith doesn’t think it will happen, and not because of the recent mini-controversy where Tom Petty and Jeff Lynne recently received songwriting credit for “Stay With Me” due to its similarity to Petty’s “I Won’t Back Down.” In fact, Smith is actually rooting against a sweep, telling Rolling Stone recently that Beyoncé’s surprise album “Beyoncé” should win album of the year instead of his own debut “In the Lonely Hour.”

“She deserves it way more than I do,” Smith told the magazine. “I’d be embarrassed if I got it over her. If I got it, I’d give it to her.”

Beyoncé’s album changed the way record labels looked at their release plans, as she rolled out “Beyoncé” with no pre-release fanfare, no introductory single or video. Its sound was equally forward-thinking, stretching the definition of today’s R&B as she included spoken-word elements, dance rhythms and her own rapping.

But given the boost Smith will get from the awards and live performance, he will be the night’s big winner, regardless of how the awards turn out.

GRAMMY PICKS

Critic Glenn Gamboa’s picks for the big awards:

• RECORD OF THE YEAR

“Fancy,” Iggy Azalea featuring Charli XCX

“Chandelier,” Sia

“Stay With Me (Darkchild Version),” Sam Smith

“Shake It Off,” Taylor Swift

“All About That Bass,” Meghan Trainor

SHOULD WIN: “All About That Bass.” Trainor’s anthem was part of 2014’s zeitgeist, touching on self-empowerment and body issues, while also mashing up hip-hop and girl groups in the most memorable way.

WILL WIN: “Stay With Me.” It’s the sweetest ode to a one-night stand that most Grammy voters have ever heard, though it’s Smith’s lovely, old-school soul vocals that likely won them over.

• ALBUM OF THE YEAR

“Morning Phase,” Beck

“Beyoncé,” Beyoncé

“X,” Ed Sheeran

“In the Lonely Hour,”

Sam Smith

“Girl,” Pharrell Williams

SHOULD WIN: “Beyoncé.” Not only did the album change the way the industry thinks of new release rollouts, it brought spoken-word performance and varied song structures into R&B, while still rolling out future classics like “XO” and showing that she can rap as well as sing.

WILL WIN: “Beyoncé”

• SONG OF THE YEAR

“All About That Bass,” Meghan Trainor

“Chandelier,” Sia

“Shake It Off,” Taylor Swift

“Stay With Me (Darkchild Version),” Sam Smith

“Take Me to Church,” Hozier

SHOULD WIN: “Stay With Me.” This songwriter’s award should go to Smith for crafting such a raw, honestly emotional plea for companionship, cloaked in old-fashioned soul.

WILL WIN: “Stay With Me.” However, Hozier’s “Take Me to Church” could be a dark horse winner.

• BEST NEW ARTIST

Iggy Azalea

Bastille

Brandy Clark

Haim

Sam Smith

SHOULD WIN: Sam Smith. This is the closest thing to a lock that Smith has among his nominations. Young artists that embrace older styles always do well with Grammy voters.

WILL WIN: Sam Smith

• BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM

“This Is All Yours,” Alt-J

“Reflektor,” Arcade Fire

“Melophobia,” Cage the Elephant

“St. Vincent,” St. Vincent

“Lazaretto,” Jack White

SHOULD WIN: “Reflektor.” Arcade Fire’s dance album showed how it is possible to create songs that can move the soul and the feet simultaneously.

WILL WIN: “Lazaretto.” Jack White’s wild rock ride blends country, indie-rock, hip-hop and blues. How alternative is that!

• BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM

“Ghost Stories,” Coldplay

“Bangerz,” Miley Cyrus

“My Everything,” Ariana Grande

“Prism,” Katy Perry

“X,” Ed Sheeran

“In the Lonely Hour,” Sam Smith

SHOULD WIN: “X.” Ed Sheeran maintains his charm during his move into more complicated, more pop-oriented songs.

WILL WIN: “In the Lonely Hour.” Sam Smith’s soulful songs balance new and old just the way Grammy voters like them.

• BEST ROCK ALBUM

“Ryan Adams,” Ryan Adams

“Morning Phase,” Beck

“Turn Blue,” Black Keys

“Hypnotic Eye,” Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers

“Songs of Innocence,” U2

SHOULD WIN: “Hypnotic Eye.” Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers strike an angry, populist tone and back that up with the rock sound that has made them legends.

WILL WIN: “Turn Blue.” The Black Keys have deservedly become Grammy favorites and this solid record won’t shake that bond.

• BEST COUNTRY ALBUM

“Riser,” Dierks Bentley

“The Outsiders,” Eric Church

“12 Stories,” Brandy Clark

“Platinum,” Miranda Lambert

“The Way I’m Livin,’ ” Lee Ann Womack

SHOULD WIN: “Platinum.” Miranda Lambert deserved an album of the year nomination for this well-crafted country masterpiece. She’ll take this home instead.

WILL WIN: “Platinum.” Sorry, Eric Church.

• BEST URBAN CONTEMPORARY ALBUM

“Sail Out,” Jhené Aiko

“Beyoncé,” Beyoncé

“X,” Chris Brown

“Mali Is …,” Mali Music

“Girl,” Pharrell Williams

SHOULD WIN: “Beyoncé.” The album defines what urban contemporary music can really accomplish.

WILL WIN: “Beyoncé.” There’s no real competition here aside from Pharrell.

• BEST RAP ALBUM

“The New Classic,” Iggy Azalea

“Because the Internet,” Childish Gambino

“Nobody’s Smiling,” Common

“The Marshall Mathers LP 2,” Eminem

“Oxymoron,” Schoolboy Q

“Blacc Hollywood,” Wiz Khalifa

SHOULD WIN: “Nobody’s Smiling.” Common shows how hip-hop can be a teaching tool as well as entertainment. If he doesn’t win this, maybe the “Selma” star will land an Oscar instead.

WILL WIN: “The Marshall Mathers LP 2.” Eminem has already won this category five times. No reason why this shouldn’t be No. 6, though if Iggy Azalea somehow pulls it out, it will blow up into the night’s biggest controversy.