The forecast for the 2016 spring chinook run destined for the Cowlitz River is a dandy, with 25,100 predicted to return. It would be the best run since the 1970s.
Oregon’s Willamette River is anticipated to get an average run of 70,000 spring chinook next year.
The two state departments of Fish and Wildlife have released their forecasts for the lower Columbia tributaries with spring salmon runs.
Those forecasts include a good run of 4,900 to the Kalama River, but another dismal year in the North Fork of the Lewis of only 1,000 spring chinook.
Jeff Whisler of the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife said his forecast of 70,000 spring chinook to the Willamette River, if accurate, would be down some from the actual return of 87,000 in 2015.
The 2010-14 average for the Willamette River was 71,000 spring chinook.
“The biggest question is whether or not the 2012 brood (age 4 adults in 2016) made it out and north of the poor ocean environment in time,’’ Whisler said. “If they did, my forecast could be on the low side. If not, we could see a lower return.’’
In the Willamette, 4-year-old spring chinook are the bulk of the adult return, a change from earlier when 4-year-old chinook and 5-year-olds would alternate between being the stronger year class, he said.
Many Southwest Washington anglers fish in the lower Willamette, particularly Multnomah Channel, after lower Columbia catch allocations are filled and the season closes.
Robert Moxley of Newberg, Ore., a member of the bi-state Columbia River Recreation Advisory Group, suggested Oregon allow anglers who buy the two-rod endorsement to fish two rods in the Willamette in 2016.
“It just makes sense to use all the available tools when removing excess hatchery fish from the spawning beds so to help continue recovery goals,’’ Moxley said. “Year after year, the Willamette River has excess hatchery fish and underutilized impacts. This would help build revenue and promote angler recruitment.’’
Guide Lance Fisher of Oregon said 70,000 spring chinook are plenty of salmon for good fishing.
“That’s a nice number,’’ he said. “I’ll take 70,000 all day. The issue is water conditions.
“If the temperature stays in the low 60s, it’s a bloodbath,’’ he said about the Willamette Falls area. “At 64 or 65 degrees, the egg bite is over.’’
Jack returns improved significantly in 2015 in both the Kalama and Cowlitz rivers, said Lisa Harlan, a district biologist for the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife.
In the Cowlitz, the actual adult return was 23,800 this year.
Sportsmen caught 5,500 spring chinook in the lower Columbia in 2015, said Joe Hymer, also a Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife biologist.
The Kalama got 3,100 adult spring chinook back in 2015 and had a sport catch of 1,000. The forecast of 4,900 is the best since 2007.
Troubles continue in the North Fork of the Lewis River where the 2016 forecast of 1,000 adults is the same as the 2015 return, and short of hatchery spawning needs.
Temperatures in the North Fork of the Lewis River are not typical of a spring chinook stream due to the three reservoirs upstream of the hatcheries.
Water temperatures in the 60s in October and November cause the spring chinook to smolt early and want to head to the ocean. Smolting is the physiological process that makes anadromous fish capable to adapting to saltwater.
Smolting causes spring chinook to use their energy stores, getting deficient in nutrition and susceptible to disease.
Renovations at the Lewis River hatcheries resulted in raceways that work well if the fish are not held too long.
To adapt to the change in the raceways, the department has gone almost entirely to fall releases of spring chinook in hopes of getting better returns.
