Memphis vs. Portland matchups
Point guard: Damian Lillard vs. Mike Conley
Edge: Blazers. Conley has more playoff experience and has gone deeper in the playoffs, but Lillard is healthier than Conley is right now. Conley has been dealing with a foot issue that sounds a lot like plantar fasciitis, something that does not always get better. As this series drags on, Lillard’s conditioning and health will trump Conley’s guile and experience.
Shooting guard: Arron Afflalo vs. Courtney Lee
Edge: Grizzlies. Health is going to be big in this matchup. Afflalo is the better player and can create his own offense, but we do not know exactly when he is going to be able to return from a shoulder injury. Afflalo is doubtful for Game 1. Lee is a very effective 3-point shooter even though he does not take a lot of them. Afflalo has the tools and experience to win this match-up but just getting on the court comes first.
Small forward: Nicolas Batum vs. Tony Allen
Edge: Blazers. Allen is the best perimeter defender in this series and will likely apply his stingy defense against Damian Lillard. Both guys are dealing with knee injuries, but Batum is a two-way player. The Blazers will be able to ignore Allen on the perimeter defensively and load up five-on-four. Allen can crash the offensive boards. Batum may be called upon against Conley, as well, but the Grizzlies cannot ignore him on the other end.
Power forward: LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Zach Randolph
Edge: Blazers. Aldridge is the toughest player to guard in the post in the league. When he commits to mixing up his rolls in the pick-and-roll game, he is even tougher. Randolph’s game has always been predicated on toughness under the rim and a smooth midrange touch. But Aldridge’s length and ability to contain ball-handlers on switches gives Portland the edge here.
Center: Robin Lopez vs. Marc Gasol
Edge: Grizzlies. Marc Gasol is the best two-way center in the NBA. He’s a gifted and smart shot-changer around the rim and a one-time Defensive Player of the Year. His passing and high-post game is the fulcrum of Memphis’ offense. Lopez is great at protecting the rim, but can be exposed against better offensive players.
Coach: Terry Stotts vs. Dave Joerger
Edge: Push. Each is a tactically savvy coach. Stotts has a great read on his team and Joerger is a master at coaching the Grizzlies defense. Adjustments after the first few games always go a long way in deciding who wins a series. Both of these guys are smart and have been known to make corrections on the fly.
Bench
Edge: Push. This series is a lot more even than most think.
CJ McCollum is going to be a problem for Memphis, and Jeff Green will be one for Portland. Chris Kaman against Kosta Koufos is an intriguing battle of the back-up bigs. Meyers Leonard brings shooting along with his 7-foot-1 frame. Memphis has guards who can score in Beno Udrih and Nick Calathes. Vince Carter has experience but his effectiveness may finally have reached the point of diminishing returns after an illustrious 17-year career.
Series prediction: Blazers in seven.
Portland may have just enough depth to come out alive. Neither team has closed the regular season well. Marc Gasol might be the best player in the series, but Portland’s combo of stars could be better, especially if Conley’s foot limits him. When Allen is in the game, Portland can play five-on-four defensively, which will help the side of the ball that has ailed them in the second half of the season. I’m also betting the Blazers defend mid-range shots better. This series is a coin flip. Whichever team’s stars rise to the occasion will take the series. I’m betting on Portland’s.
