It’s impossible to say there’s a trend of increasing gun violence in Vancouver or across the nation, according to sociologist Clay Mosher, who analyzes crime trends and teaches criminology at Washington State University Vancouver.
“This could be just a blip,” he said, after two workplace shootings and one drug-related shooting in two days left three people dead and three injured.
“You could see this many things in this many days,” Mosher said. “Then you could see nothing for quite some time.”
But it’s absolutely possible to say that we as a society are growing accustomed to hearing about random gun violence breaking out anywhere and everywhere — even right here. When it’s not in Chicago or Philadelphia but Fruit Valley and Fourth Plain, Mosher said, local folks just aren’t as shocked as they used to be.
“We have become desensitized,” Mosher said. “I do think there’s a normalization of this kind of thing. Whether it’s happening here or somewhere else, it’s seemingly happening all the time.”
That has mostly to do with the media universe we live in, he said. “I definitely think the media attention is greater. I think a lot of this is copycat stuff. It’s a catch-22, because the media has to cover it, of course,” he said.
The fact is, violent crime in America has done nothing but shrink for years, he said.
“Overall, violent crime in the U.S. is way down,” he said. “The quintessential example is New York City,” which was famous for a high murder rate — up over 2,000 per year a couple of decades ago. In 2013, there were just over 300 murders in New York. Many — though not all — American cities are seeing similar declines, he said.
“Most people are surprised to learn that violent crime is dropping sharply and steadily,” said Mosher’s colleague Tom Tripp.
Tripp, a business professor who specializes in workplace psychology and conflict, added that violence and “violent revenge” in the workplace are “extremely rare.”
According to the last figures available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 767 workplace deaths in the United States due to violence or suicide in 2012. Workplace homicides and suicides were both slightly lower in 2012 than the year before. There were 375 workers killed in shootings on the job in 2012. Robbers accounted for one-third of all those shootings; co-workers accounted for 13 percent.
These are “astonishingly low numbers,” Tripp said. “There are something like 140 million workers in the United States.”
“Violence is trending downward, and I can’t think of anything in the last couple-three years that would cause a spike in workplace violence,” Tripp said. “If anything, the trend should be in the opposite direction.”
That’s because of the improving economy, he said. But both Tripp and Mosher emphasized that it’s not as easy as you might expect to draw a causal connection between violent incidents and the economic climate. Nonetheless, Mosher said he does worry about people who live in a constant state of stress over employment — and especially about veterans returning from hot spots overseas.
“I’ve been concerned about the impacts of the big recession that I’m still not sure we’re out of,” he said. “And I’ve been concerned about a lot of vets returning from Iraq and Afghanistan with some pretty high levels of (post-traumatic stress disorder from being exposed to all that violence.”
But he pointed out that researchers have consistently found that it’s generally not people with chronic mental illness who snap into acts of lethal violence. Rather, it’s people who are experiencing major life crises — and can get their hands on lethal weapons.
“It’s an unpopular thing, but I always say, as a Canadian who grew up with much different gun laws, I think a lot of this is access to guns,” Mosher said. “It’s too easy to do this kind of stuff.”
But states’ reactions to the December 2012 massacre of schoolchildren in Connecticut were all over the map, he pointed out. “Half the states tightened their gun laws — but half the states loosened them,” he said.
Muted reaction
Mental health professionals who work at public clinics and school districts didn’t report any major reaction to the news. Vancouver Public Schools and Columbia River Mental Health did not respond to requests for comment.
“It isn’t registering with any of our students at this point, at least that they’ve come forward to discuss. They aren’t hearing any buzz about it,” said Gail Spolar, spokeswoman for Evergreen Public Schools.
