Winter is officially only a few days old, but the region’s mountain snowpack already faces a sizeable deficit.
Unlike last year’s slow start, the culprit isn’t an early-season dry spell. Low elevations have seen plentiful rain since October. But unusually warm temperatures have kept that moisture from producing abundant mountain snow. In Southwest Washington, for example, the Lower Columbia basin had just 23 percent of its normal snowpack for this time of year as of Tuesday, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service in Portland. That’s among the lowest in the state.
“In a lot of cases, the snowpack was somewhat similarly low last year,” said Julie Koeberle, a hydrologist with the NRCS. “But we arrived at these low snowpack conditions differently.”
Scientists only have to look to last year to find hope. After seeing dismal numbers in late December and early January, a series of storms helped snowpack across Washington catch up to normal or above-normal levels by the end of the snowy season. This early in the season, it’s still possible for conditions to change dramatically, Koeberle said.
“We could still see a swing in either direction,” she said.
Some places, such as northeast Washington and southeast Oregon, are off to a much better start than last year. Others are much worse. The Mount Hood area’s snowpack is just 10 percent of normal — a near-record low for this time of year, Koeberle said.
Mountain snowpack is a major driver of the region’s water supply in the spring and summer, which affects ecology, agriculture and power generation, among other things. It also determines the fate of major ski resorts that are no strangers to uncertainty.
Mount Hood Meadows just opened for the season on Monday, its latest opening in at least 20 years, said spokesman Dave Tragethon. The resort had only a handful of lifts operating and reported a 20-inch base on Tuesday.
“Usually, by this time, we will have been operating daily since Thanksgiving,” Tragethon said.
Ski resorts can take extra measures to improve conditions while they wait for Mother Nature to provide a boost. Meadows has snow-making machines that have been put to use this year, Tragethon said. The resort can also “harvest” snow by moving it from other parts of the mountain to the slopes where it’s needed, he said.
It’s not unusual for a resort to get a good blast of snow early in the season, then “just kind of eke by until you get the next one,” Tragethon said. But this year, warm temperatures and rain have reversed some earlier gains, he said.
“We’re really talking about the difference between a degree or two,” Tragethon said.
Meteorologists continue to monitor the possibility that a weak El Niño could develop this winter. The weather phenomenon often — but not always — brings warmer, drier conditions to the Northwest.
So far this month, the average temperature in Vancouver has measured almost 9 degrees warmer than December 2013, according to the National Weather Service. Rainfall has registered near normal.
The coming week should bring cooler conditions, low-elevation rain and additional mountain snow, according to the weather service. In the coming months, hydrologists are hoping the overall snowpack in Washington and Oregon can mount another comeback.
“Definitely start your snow dances,” Koeberle said.
