Conflicting weather forecasting models began to agree Sunday, and their conclusion was this: Tuesday night will be a good time to stay home.
Snow is likely to fall in the metro area beginning Tuesday afternoon, and then switch to freezing rain around midnight. The freezing rain will persist until late Wednesday morning before it turns back to rain again, said Wanda Likens at the National Weather Service office in Portland.
The weather service is predicting no more than a half-inch of snow to fall Tuesday afternoon, and then possibly another inch Tuesday night before the freezing rain starts.
That’s a far cry from a foot or more of snow, as some weather models had predicted late Saturday and early Sunday.
Steve Pierce, columbian.com weather blogger, explains it this way:
““The storm is still on track for late Tuesday afternoon and evening. The center of the storm will pass to the north, which will limit the amount of snow we see. Precipitation should begin as snow in most areas near Portland and Vancouver Tuesday after 4 p.m. A transition to freezing rain, sleet and then rain is likely at some point Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Models are in general agreement that enough precipitation will fall to accumulate some snow across the metro area Tuesday night before it all changes to rain. How much snow is still up in the air and we will know more by (to)day and (to)night.
“What this does not look like is a big snowfall that remains here for days, followed by even colder weather later in the week.”
Likens said that meteorologists use several different weather forecasting models, which do not all use the same data. In some cases, the different models agree, but in this case, there had been some disagreement. By Sunday evening, they were all predicting about the same thing.
Other forecast sites such as Weather Underground and Accuweather, which provides The Columbian’s weather page, also see snow and ice in our future. Accuweather predicts 1.3 inches of snow for Tuesday, while Weather Underground was predicting 2 to 4 inches, followed by a quarter-inch of ice.
By Wednesday afternoon, the temperature should be 40 degrees in Vancouver. As usual, the Columbia River Gorge will be the last to warm up.
Likens said there is still room for the models to change their minds again about what will happen Tuesday. If they hold firm, however, she expects the weather service will issue a winter storm watch for the Vancouver area later today.
