Will Alabama pick a Democrat over Moore? Suburbs will decide

ALABASTER, Ala. — It’s no secret that if Roy Moore is going to lose his race for U.S. Senate, it’s going to happen in Alabama’s suburbs. And on Friday, a day after allegations emerged that the outspoken Christian conservative had sexual contact with a 14-year-old girl decades ago, at least a few Republicans in one Birmingham suburb were having second thoughts about their party’s nominee.

“Really and truly, I cannot tell you what I’m going to do right now,” said Carolyn Griffin, of Calera, as she watched her dog Loxy exercise at Alabaster’s Veterans Park.

Griffin is the kind of voter who might be moved by the allegations, and suburban Shelby County is home to likeminded voters. While Alabama might be called the Heart of Dixie, much of Shelby County is Anysuburb USA, with subdivisions and strip malls sprawling ever farther south along traffic-choked highways leading out of Birmingham.

The accusations against Moore come as Democrats are feeling increasingly optimistic about their strength in suburbs after Tuesday’s elections in Virginia, New Jersey and other races. Still, it’s a steep, steep climb in Alabama. No Democrat has held a U.S. Senate seat there since 1997, when Howell Heflin retired.

Moore has been considered the strong favorite as a Republican running in a deeply red state, and polls taken before the Washington Post story showed him with a lead over Democratic challenger Doug Jones in the Dec. 12 race.

But Moore, a polarizing figure within his own state, has typically underperformed other Republicans in general-election races, giving rise to Democrats’ hope of a victory against him in the off-year election.