Time to consider schools’ success in reclassification process

The question I had was a simple one.

Is there a better way of maintaining competitive balance in high schools sports than sorting schools out by their enrollment numbers?

Because whenever the WIAA goes through a reclassification process, I see successful programs dropping down, while struggling programs are forced to move up.

What sense does that make?

Some people have suggested that wealth plays a bigger role than enrollment. In fact there is a proposal in front of the WIAA now that tackles that issue.

But I’ve found that when you bring money into the conversation, emotions get stirred up, making real change difficult.

So let’s tackle this issue from another way.

If you were trying to figure out a golfer’s handicap, you wouldn’t do it by asking him how many rounds of golf he’s played in the past year, or how much money he’s spent on equipment or lessons?

You’d just look at his scores.

Why can’t we do the same with schools?

I’ve spent the past couple of weeks rating high schools’ athletic programs and ranking them based on their success in state tournaments and meets.

Here’s how it works.

Every team to win a state title receives five points. Each runner-up gets four; third or fourth gets three; fifth through eighth gets two; and ninth through 16th gets 1.

I applied that to every sport except four. I excluded gymnastics and bowling because only about half the schools in the state field teams in those sports. I excluded golf and tennis because team standings at state can be so easily impacted by the success of a single participant.

Then I scored each school in state competitions during the current classification cycle — all three seasons of the 2014-15 school year, and the first two of the 2015-16 school year.

The idea here is that the schools that score the fewest points in a classification would be given the option to drop down in class, while the highest scoring schools would be required to move up.

Let’s take a look at the results. And for the sake of this example we’ll list the 10 best and worst at each classification as if this were being applied to the next classification cycle.

We’ll start with the best schools in Class 4A, just for fun as these would not impact reclassification (you can’t go higher than 4A). The top ten in order were Camas, Tahoma, Issaquah, Central Valley, Gig Harbor, Bellarmine Prep, Curtis, Skyline, Newport-Bellevue and Moses Lake.

Now for teams eligible to move down from 4A: Spanaway Lake, Mariner, Heritage, Thomas Jefferson, Mountain View, Evergreen, Kent-Meridian, Cascade-Everett, Monroe and Stadium.

Moving up from 3A would be: Bellevue, Mercer Island, Kamiakin, Lakeside-Seattle, Arlington, Mount Spokane, Garfield, Edmonds-Woodway, Holy Names, Auburn Riverside.

Moving down from 3A would be: University, Fort Vancouver, Mount Tahoma, Chief Sealth, Marysville-Getchell, Franklin, Foss, Rogers-Spokane, Shelton, Nathan Hale.

Moving up from 2A: Liberty-Issaquah, Sehome, Anacortes, Shorecrest, Squalicum, Ellensburg, Tumwater, North Kitsap, Selah and Clarkston.

Moving down from 2A: Grandview, Hudson’s Bay, Foster, Clover Park, North Mason, Quincy, Rochester, Aberdeen, Tyee, Evergreen-Seattle.

Moving up from 1A: King’s, Lakeside-Nine Mile Falls, Lynden Christian, Zillah, Montesano, Deer Park, Connell, Freeman, Colville, Hoquiam.

Moving down from 1A: Newport, Wahluke, River View, Goldendale, Stevenson, Eastside Prep, Bush, Tenino, Coupeville, Chimacum, Forest Ridge.

Moving up from 2B: Okanogan, Northwest Christian-Colbert, Adna, Colfax, Northwest Christian-Lacey, Napavine, St. George’s, Reardan, Asotin, Warden.

Moving down from 2B: Kettle Falls, Soap Lake, Manson, Bridgeport, Winlock, Tacoma Baptist, South Bend, Chief Leschi, Orcas Island, Tekoa-Rosalia.

Moving up from 1B: Almira-Coulee/Hartline, Neah Bay, Republic, Mount Vernon Christian, Lummi, Sunnyside Christian, Pomeroy, Crosspoint, Liberty Christian, Colton.

Interesting, isn’t yet?

It seems to make sense. Columbia River, a school that is dropping from 3A to 2A in the actual reclassification process, would actually stay at 3A in my system, barely missing a requirement to move to 4A.

Hudson’s Bay, which is being required to move from 2A to 3A next fall, in my system would be allowed to drop to 1A.

The only concern I have with this system is that with just five seasons of results, I don’t get the kind of data I’d like.

But the classification cycle that starts next fall will last four years. That’s plenty of time to gather data.

The idea here is we are trying to move schools into the classification where they would have the best chance to be competitive. Isn’t that the whole purpose of reclassification?

It’s worth at least a discussion in the WIAA offices in Renton.

If you want to see the spreadsheets I used to compile these numbers, the results for Class 4A, Class 3A, Class 2A, Class 1A, Class 2B and Class 1B are available online. Let me know what you think.

And if the WIAA believes this system makes sense and they want to use it, I wouldn’t ask for much. Just maybe name a state tournament after me.

“Welcome to the WIAA Les Schwab Tires/Dairy Farmers of Washington/Tim Martinez is a Steely-Eyed Missile Man state tournament.”

It has a nice ring to it, don’t you think?

Tim Martinez is the assistant sports editor/prep coordinator for The Columbian. He can be reached at (360) 735-4538, tim.martinez@columbian.com or follow his Twitter handle @360TMart.