4 things to watch in GOP debate

WASHINGTON — Will tonight’s Republican presidential debate become the second episode of the Donald Trump show? Will retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson emerge as his principal rival? Or will the public start buzzing about someone else?

The two-hour debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Library in Simi Valley, Calif., will begin at 5 p.m. on CNN and feature the 11 candidates doing best in national polls as of Sept. 10. An earlier debate, starting at 3 p.m., will include the other prominent Republican candidates.

Here’s what to look for at the main event:

Will Trump remain the undisputed Republican star?

The outspoken real estate mogul retains a lead in party polls, gets attention others desperately want, and no matter how outrageous or offensive his remarks, remains popular. Carson has begun to surge in the polls. Can anyone else break through? Rivals need to find a way to bring Trump down, but that involves risk.

Who will emerge as the chief alternative to Trump?

Someone will eventually surface as the anti-Trump by appearing reasonable, thoughtful and nuanced, yet still display the sense of candor that has triggered the billionaire’s rise. Will it be Carson, whose quiet style has won him a sizable following and strong momentum, particularly among evangelical voters? Or John Kasich, the plainspoken, pragmatic governor of Ohio who’s quickly winning supporters in New Hampshire? Will more conservative candidates go after Kasich and notably Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor with the big campaign treasury, as too moderate? Also worth watching: Carly Fiorina, the former business executive. She shined in the non-prime time debate last month with her down-to-earth explanations of national security policy. This time she gets to play with the big hitters.

Who will get lost in the crowd?

Time is running out for some prominent Republicans to show some political muscle. After today, the next nationally televised Republican debate doesn’t occur for six more weeks. The end of the current fundraising quarter is Sept. 30, so some of the big-name candidates need to use this debate to convince donors they’ve got a chance. Frustration is building.

Will the economy or national security get some serious attention?

Voters judge candidates not only on personality and gravitas, but on command of the issues. Since the last debate, Wall Street has endured some of its worst weeks in years, and Washington lawmakers are engaged in a bitter debate on the Iran nuclear deal. What kind of options on Iran will the candidates offer? Do they appear comfortable and well-informed discussing national security? What’s their plan to strengthen the economy? Republicans enjoy talking about tax-cutting, but voters have shown they want depth and understanding, too.