As personnel decisions go, this was an easy one. The difficulty will be in deciding what comes next.
The Trail Blazers have confirmed that they will not sign Greg Oden to a contract extension by Monday’s league deadline. That means the center will become a restricted free agent next summer, giving Portland the option to retain Oden by matching any offer he signs.
In the peripatetic machinations of NBA negotiations, this could be a risky maneuver. There’s no telling what the economic outlook of the league will be next summer. No telling whether there will be some team, one team, willing to sign Oden to an outlandish contract that is unreasonable for the Blazers to match.
So, yes, there is a risk.
But the aggravating part is that the risk is small. That there’s no reason to sign Oden to an extension at this point. That the former No. 1 overall draft pick hasn’t given the club a reason to lose sleep over the thought of losing him.
So far, the Blazers can only cling to a utopian vision of what might be with Oden, while struggling to assess the reality of what actually is.
If Oden were to walk away, you can’t help but think it would be like having a hot-but-crazy girlfriend walk out on you. Sure, you’ll miss the potential of some good times, but it’s nice to finally be able to move on with your life.
In three-plus NBA seasons since he was drafted, Oden has appeared in 82 of a possible 249 regular-season games. There have been flashes of brilliance, only to have those overshadowed by repeated injuries.
You know all that, of course. It has been rehashed ad nauseam because that’s all we have to talk about when it comes to Oden.
“Is there any proof that I’m a bust?” Oden asked when the Blazers opened training camp this fall. “All there is proof of is that I have bad luck with injuries. When I was out there on the floor, I think I did pretty good for myself.
“I’ve never really had enough time to play and actually improve. I think last year at the beginning of the year I did OK, started to head down that path. Unfortunately I had an injury.”
Bust or not, that “pretty good” has become the basketball equivalent of rose-colored glasses for the fans.
Last year, per 36 minutes played, Oden averaged 16.7 points and 12.8 rebounds while shooting 61 percent from the field. Impressive numbers.
But he also averaged 6.0 fouls per 36 minutes, a continual shortcoming that prevents him from staying on the floor for extended periods, even when he’s healthy. We spend so much time worrying about when Oden will return to the lineup that we tend to ignore the glaring holes in his game.
And along the way, the injuries have become a built-in excuse not only for Oden but for the franchise.
The Blazers have been down this road before. In his first two seasons, Bill Walton played in a total of 86 regular-season games. He was criticized for his injuries, criticized for his lifestyle, labeled a bust of the first magnitude. And then he became the best player in the world, stayed just healthy enough, and led Portland to a championship.
That’s the scenario the Blazers are counting on with Oden. Because the thought of him being healthy and effective for some other team is nauseating.
In the meantime, Portland has taken the logical first step toward deciding Oden’s future, whatever that might be. He will return to the court sometime this season, and the hope is that his play will make him an indispensable piece of the franchise.
But the guess is that the answer won’t be quite that simple.
Greg Jayne is Sports editor for The Columbian. He can be reached at 360-735-4531, or by e-mail at greg.jayne@columbian.com. To read his blog, to columbian.com/weblogs/GregJayne
