A poll conducted for Republican congressional candidate Jaime Herrera concludes that Republicans have an excellent chance to win the 3rd Congressional District race this year — and that Herrera would command a big lead among GOP candidates if the primary were held today.
But the survey, conducted by Oregon pollster Moore Information, also found that nearly half of voters remain undecided two months before the Aug. 17 primary election.
The survey sampled 300 likely voters in the 3rd District by phone on June 13 and 14.
David Castillo, Herrera’s leading Republican opponent, called the survey “a name ID poll” and told The Columbian, “I take it with a grain of salt.”
“The sample size is too small,” he said. “Where in the district did they poll? The vast majority of voters have no idea there is an election going on.”
In response to the question, “If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or Democratic candidate?” 42 percent said they would vote Republican, 35 percent said they would vote Democratic, 3 percent said “neither” and 20 percent were undecided.
Those who identified themselves as independent voters said they would favor a Republican by a three-to-one margin.
Among voters who preferred a Republican, Herrera, a state representative in the 18th District, had a wide lead over Castillo, a former Bush administration official who now works as a financial consultant in Olympia, and Tea Party activist David Hedrick of Camas.
Herrera was favored by 27 percent of respondents, Hedrick by 8 percent and Castillo by 8 percent. Significantly, 49 percent of those polled said they were undecided.
When asked: “Who would you prefer to represent you in Congress? A Republican member of Congress who will be a check and balance to Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, or a Democrat member of Congress who will help Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats pass their agenda?” 49 percent said they would prefer a Republican, 41 percent said they would favor a Democrat, and 10 percent said they did not know.
Among independents, 46 percent said they would favor a Republican on this question; 21 percent would vote for a Democrat.
The 3rd District has long been considered a swing district, and national political pundits rank this year’s race for its open seat a toss-up.
Though incumbent U.S. Rep. Brian Baird, a six-term Vancouver Democrat, easily won reelection five times since his election to Congress in 1998, voters in the 3rd went for Republican George W. Bush in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections and for Republican Dino Rossi in the gubernatorial elections of 2004 and 2008.
Denny Heck of Olympia, a former state legislator from Clark County and the founder of the public affairs channel TVW, and Cheryl Crist, an Olympia peace activist, are the Democratic candidates in the 3rd District race. Last week, Norma Jean Stevens of Ocean Park filed for the seat as an Independent.
The margin of sampling error in the Moore poll is plus or minus 6 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.
Kathie Durbin: 360-735-4523 or kathie.durbin@columbian.com.
