Sunday, January 22, 2006
By DAN MOFFAT Columbian forecaster

Clark County has always been a hotbed of telecommunications.

A number of local entrepreneurs, such as John Warta with roots in Pacific Telecom (now CenturyTel), have launched multiple telecom companies based here.

Some have since merged with national companies. Others have gone away in the aftermath of one of the most severe economic times most of us remember. Others continue to grow and thrive.

The number of per capita telecom jobs in Clark County is among the highest compared to other local industries. Going forward in the next 20 years, telecom will continue playing a leading role for local economic growth and expansion.

Certainly, Clark County has been a benefactor of economic growth stimulated by telecom over the past 20 years -- not only through job creation but also from benefits its businesses derive from new or expanded telecom services.

Telecommunications historically has been a key engine for economic growth and expansion in the country.

For example, after the 1929 market crash, the government created regulated monopolies to foster economic growth and expansion through a concept called universal telecom service. More recently, our economic picture improved as telecom started coming back to life following one of the worst downturns in industry history.

The health of telecom is a leading economic indicator because communications and information flow are vital for business success not only across America but also here at home in Vancouver.

Going forward, as businesses process more information to remain competitive, they need networks to move this information to places where it can be of use.

Every business now needs a network to be competitive. We are entering a new era. I call it the Networking Age. As computing power becomes cheaper and more prevalent, more businesses are able to afford networks that link all their locations, suppliers, customers, and remote workers.

Within the next 20 years most businesses throughout Clark County will be connected not only among their own corporate structures, but they also will interconnect with high-speed fat pipes to other businesses, suppliers, customers, even their remote employees. We are seeing these patterns emerge already.

The new networking era will yield benefits that are limited only by the imagination. Home phones, work phones, cell phones, voice mailboxes, e-mail, and instant messaging all interconnected in a "communications command center" that once would have been imagined only on the bridge of "Star Trek's" Enterprise.

Businesses will have real-time access to inventory and purchasing patterns. Companies like Wal-Mart lead the way in linking computing and networking for business advantage. Many small businesses will have affordable access to technology that will allow them to compete and stay alive in the new business environment where speed and efficiency reign supreme.

When a customer walks through the front doors, the sales representative in the store will know that customer by name, history of purchases, and precisely what promotions are appealing. The technology that enables this is here now. It will be in everyday use within the next 10 years.

Powerful communications networks and technology will be keys for minimizing the impact of hurricanes and other natural disasters. Through powerful networks and satellite technology, 20 years from now we will be able to anticipate and plan for the impact of storms and disasters.

Clearly, we are entering a new era in telecommunications. In the 1980s, the introduction of the PC drove economic growth and expansion. Stalwarts like Microsoft were born and gave rise. In the 1990s, all those desktop PC were networked together through the Internet, and this drove economic expansion. New networking companies like Cisco Systems were born. E-mail proliferated and data exchange grew. This meant companies needed more networking and more broadband.

In the era of globalization, it is all about networking and information flow. Over the next decade, ever-faster broadband networks will help convert data into actionable knowledge and new economic expansion. Businesses will leverage information and technology to continue growing revenue, cutting expenses, or improving overall customer experience.

Communications providers will be tasked to be nimble and quick for handling the complexity that new-era networks will present. In the next two decades, new stalwarts will be born. Who will they be?

TELECOMMUNICATIONS: What might happen 20 years from now

* As businesses process more information to remain competitive, they need networks to move this information to places where it can be of use. In the era of globalization, it is all about networking and information flow.

* When a customer walks through the front doors, the sales representative in the store will know that customer by name, history of purchases, and precisely what promotions are appealing. The technology that enables this is here now. It will be in every-day use within the next 10 years.

* Ever faster broadband networks will help convert data into actionable knowledge and new economic expansion. Businesses will leverage information and technology to continue growing revenue, cutting expenses, or improving overall customer experience.